Trump's problem with GOP Senate impeachment voteAs I understand it, now that the House has impeached Trump, the Senate has the power to try the impeachment.
It would take a 2/3 majority vote in the Senate to convict Trump on the Impeachment charge which means that it would take 67 votes in the Senate.
Under normal circumstances (not that any of this is normal....or maybe this is the new normal), it would be inconceivable that enough GOP Senate members would vote to impeach.
Given the recent events and the fact that there is a faction of the GOP that wants Trump GONE, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that 17 GOP Senators would vote for impeachment.
Here is where it might get interesting. If the GOP Senators don't vote for impeachment, Trump could attempt another run for President in 2024. Trump could either do so as a GOP if he won the GOP nomination which is hard to imagine but you never know with Americans, or he could run as an independent.
Given Trump's narcisstic and psychopathological tendencies, he might choose to run as an independent believing that he could actually win and stick it to everyone that betrayed him. If Trump ran as an independent, it is well within the realm of possibility that enough Americans would vote for Trump to split the GOP vote thereby allowing the Democratics a free pass in 2024.
If enough GOP Senators vote for impeachment to carry the vote, I think that would prevent Trump from ever running for office again. What a great way for the GOP to wash the stink of Trump off their party,