UPDATE TO MY VALUATION ON SOL GLOBAL Here is a Sol Global Valuation update and breakdown that may may help all of you (in answer to someone else;s question I had received):
As of today, the trading comparables for 2021 Adjusted EBITDA Multiples for the US MSO Peer Group Comp (i.e., Curaleaf, Cresco, Trulieve, and Green Thumb) which have a low-end range of 10.9x, a median of 15.9x and a high-end range of 21.7x.
Verano's forecasted 2021 EBITDA is estimated at $350MM (per management).
Using both elements from above, this leads to a forecasted median valuation of $5.565Bn with a range of $3.815Bn to $7.595Bn.
However, the private offering was actually priced at $2.88Bn for Verano back in 2020 to entice the investors with upside and prior to the Georgia election and also when the multiples were lower. So let's pretend the $2.88Bn truly is the floor value that we can expect for Verano.
Sol's stake is 12.6% in original Verano.
After the merger with Altmed that 12.6% will be diluted by 77%. Sol's share will be diluted to 9.7%.
However there will be additional dilution from the $100MM private offering which will increase the private valuation range to $100MM $2.98Bn in terms of enterprise value but also dilute the shares further down to 9.376%. (I am going to assume the $1MM to Majesta is negligible and that the transaction fees will be negligible).
Additionally, Sol's fully diluted share count of 65.43981MM based on the last filing.
So, here are some estimates for Sol's share of the potential valuations based on the 2021 EBITDA multiples + Sol's share of the private offering (i.e., $9.376MM):
a. Private Floor Case: $288MM (or $4.40/share)
b. Low Case of 10.9x 2021 Adjusted EBITDA: $367MM (or $5.6/share)
c. Median Case of 15.9x 2021 Adjusted EBITDA: $530MM (or $8/share)
d. High Case of 21.7x 2021 Adjusted EBITDA: $721MM (or $11.01/share)
This, combined with the Bluma Value/share (see prior comment) of $1.245/share leads to total value range contribution of :
a. Private Floor Case: $5.64/share
b. Low Case: $6.84/share
c. Median Case: $9.24/share
d. High Case: $12.25/share
However, we should probably take out long term capital gains tax of 20% to be more accurate, leading to an after-tax value range contribution to Sol of:
a. Private Floor Case: $4.51/share
b. Low Case: $5.47/share
c. Median Case: $7.39/share
d. High Case: $9.8/share
However Sol has debts, interest, and liabilities of another approximate $65MM which would knock of about approximately $1/share, leading to an "enterprise value" of:
a. Private Floor Case: $3.51/share
b. Low Case: $4.47/share
c. Median Case: $6.39/share
d. High Case: $8.8/share
Given Sol closed at $2.71/share today, this reflects a return of:
a. Private Floor Case: ~30%
b. Low Case: ~65%
c. Median Case: ~135%
d. High Case: ~325%
NOTE: THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY VALUE FOR ANY OF THE OTHER SOL PORTFOLIO COMPANIES OUTSIDE OF VERANO AND SOL....but let's just pretend they are zero since they are negligible (and they are just icing on the cake).
Hopefully you can see why the value of Sol's shares are steadily rising and far more room to go. Pick your scenario and I suspect you will still come out a winner 8-)
I hope that helps 8-)