RE:Supreme - still severely undervalued Very nice joh, much appreciated but not surprised...$.60 is definately not out of line but they will want to get those numbers up and be well positioned for maximum growth within potential. They look to be getting closer to their work with MMCap and will be well ready to move forward on agenda.
They are going to need a lot more sales volume to make anything work and I think we are going to see a serious move up on full production...the Shoppers market place is going to be very interesting in many ways, everybody will be there displaying their wares where quality, pricing, marketing etc is going to tell a very interesting story.
Beena/team are ready, I think they have got a lot more done than what we see so far and growth will be sustainable going forward ...unlike what looks like the Leafs again this year? Anyway always informative and helpful. JMHO...Opt
johnale wrote: Recent upgrade to Aphria by analysts - and a deep dive article got me thinking.
cronos/canopy trade 18-21X CY21 EV/Sales - (see note at end)
If the top 5 LPs garner that - whats the next 5 LP's get as supreme is top 9/10 LP in rec market.
Well OGI is the weakest link - Has an EV about 535mil and CY21 ~89mil gives them 6X Today.
FIRE - At 6x CY21E(62mil net rev) = 372mil - ~71mil debt = 301 Market Cap.
Implies fire should be trading at .60cents today.
** the convertible debt converts to shares at .45 (At fires discretion) which removes 35.7mil debt from the calculation and increases the Outstanding shares. ultimately it works out to .54 cents/share.
Thats TODAYS value if we have the same metrics as OGI.
With an ebita positive/cash positive quarter - we should easily justify this value. If we clear 14mil - we would be on pace to surpass 62mil CY21E and possibly thus higher value.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Pablo Zuanic increased his 12-month price target on Aphria to C$26, from C$15.25. He says the Aphria x Tilray merger has a 70% upside. The primary reason that Cantor has upgraded Aphria is due to the large disconnect in valuations between Aphria and Canopy Growth/Cronos. Both Cronos and Canopy Growth trade between an 18-21x CY21 EV/sales multiple while Aphria x Tilray trade at a 13x multiple despite the combined entity holding a 20%/#1 market share position in Canada.