Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

RE:RE:Convertible pricing

[SPCEO1]

Sounds about right to me.

Wino115 wrote:

I honestly think they worked themselves into a frenzy looking at upcoming spending, the lack of past stock price response to seemingly good news and market froth.   You can call that sensible, conservative, emotional, non-analytical.  But in the end, it is the cost we bear for their past inability to communicate a co Vinci g case as to why the future is bright and they are entering massive markets.  They've just failed that test and more or less knew they couldn't flip a switch and repair that.  The last thing I'll say about this is that we were ahead of them in saying how they needed a much more robust and convincing pitch, a more concerted and funded PR and IR effort and should have been cultivating the market as they shed analysts over the last 2 years.  They did not even do the minimum necessary for a professional job and we unfortunately have paid for this lack of engagement with the US capital market and even Canada.  They stuck themselves in a narrow box and freaked out.

 

SPCEO1 wrote: I took a look to see if the convert bounced on the news of the offering. You would expect that the increased finances would give greater confidence to the people holding it as a bond, which is everyone holdinig right now, that the company will be better bale to pay it off when it comes due in a bit more than two years from now. But, basically, it has not moved at all from when the news of the offering came out. 

Now, the money raised was spcifically targetted to pay for the R&D over the next couple of years, so perhaps that is why the convert was unimpressed. But if the R&D programs all failed to move forward (cancer pahse I throws off a safety issue and the FDA reverses course on the NASH phase III) then the company would likely have enough money to redeem the convert. Perhaps this scenario was in TH's mind when they did this deal? It represents the most extreme downside scenario and, to me, is not what they should have been making their financing decision based on but they have more knowledge than us on the chances of success in cancer and the issues the FDA might yet have on NASH. If the risks are uglier than we realize, perhaps that motivated their call on this financing? 

I am trying to work hard at finding a reason why otherwise sensible people would have pursued this financing and, as you can see, it is not an easy task,