RE:LTD - $4B is realisticAgreed Pablo. Before Covid BA LTD was forecasted at 2-2.5B$ EM took the job with that estimate in mind. Now they have to find this extra 1.5-2 B$ to take off. Many possibilities to get this missing sum. We will know more about their plan next month.
PabloLafortune wrote: First, #1 Q3 LTD 9.2B.//// #2 Alstom said Euro 5.3B what they will pay out less 2.5B Euro of shares so 2.8B cash @1.17 or $3.28B. LTD after applying 5.9B.//// #3 3a) BBD invested 350M Euro (427M USD) in BT in Q2 that should be returned. 3b) they will also own shares in Alstom currently estimated valued of 627M USD. 3c) Finally, I believe they have upside of 300M Euro on the deal (which would put them right back to the 4.2B originally estimated in February 17 press release). Total 1.35B USD. LTD after that 4.55B.//// #4 further upsides. 4a) they have option to buy CDPQ's shares in Alstom could be worth $200M USD? 4b) they may have bought some LTD back (2025 and 2027 bonds going up too quickly IMO) $100M USD? 4c) maybe they sold some R/E $300M USD. 4d) BA Q4 cashflow (they break even at $1B. Q4 revenue north of $2B. Lots of cash coming in net of reduced backlog ($300M?) 500M? again, a guess. 4e) they had pro-forma cash on hand at Q4 of $600M. GD is running negative $600M on the same metric. $800M there? Total for this section 1.9B. LTD after that 2.65B. ////
I admit to my optimism but in my view $4B LTD is quite realistic. YMMV.
Also, I do believe they will bring it further down with an equity raise but that's another story.