RE:RE:War in ukraine@6pako6
Ukraine historically has been some kind of a buffer zone between Germanic States/Western Europe and Grand Duchy of Moscow. Ignoring external influences including China and N.America, we will see further wrestling between W.Europe and Moscow in the area.
Russia is a very chaotic country. Too much ethnic diversity. Too much land. Well paid jobs only exist in Gazprom and Rosneft. The only thing that keeps Russians together is some of nonsense relegion of nationalism. The people of Novosibirsk would be much better off if they unhook from Mosow as a indepedent state. It also works for many other oblasts in Far East. They could get some much investment from Japan, China, Canada, US or EU if Moscow is not involved. To keep the nationalism strong, Moscow need to have all its subjects living under fear. That means Moscow leadership is happy to put its subjects into more miserabliness to keep the government strong.
If Moscow only wishes to have some tension going to keep himself together, then it is not likely they will spend too much money in Donetsk and Luhansk. Also Russia is in a very weak situation. This is what I told my father. "Everywhere in Russia looked like Roman ruins. Only SaintPetersburg and Moscow looked alright. "
I have spent all holidays of my university years in Russia and dated chicks there. Sometimes, the Russia part has soaked a bit too much into me
China? Russia has taken Siberia from China. China is not showing any anger to Russia because of the old communist friendship. Soon that will fade away. Comparing US and Russia, it is their best interest to hit Russia first.
Japan? Siberian oil fields was their dreams. Japan will invest in Russia Far East if there is a safe legal grounds.Korea is kind of the same deal. They all want to buy Russian fuel.
US? Russia could make Europeans uncomfortable. Russia is just a friend under the table.
EU? It is likely Russia will never be able to join the great family of EU given their culture and behaviours.
Ukraine? Russia is trying to take back some goodies they lost in the divorce. It is kind to deal with an annoying ex