RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Dumping 20M shares and keeping 10M warrants @$3.18 Here's one of the minors in NASH trying to raise cash now, let's see what they get. Presently $150mil market cap. Must say I've become more aware of these guys in recent months, maybe better marketing/preparation than THTX.
They have a not so attractive drug, basically testosterone, only good for men but with reasonable fat busting data and Ph2 endpoint data. They are doing stuff that ticks boxes, the process THTX has bypassed.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lipocine-announces-launch-of-public-offering-of-common-stock-301214400.html
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lipocine-announces-open-label-extension-to-ongoing-lpcn-1144-lift-study-301199071.html
qwerty22 wrote:
The best equation I can come up with is
ZERO endpoint data = ZERO value
LITTLE endpoint data + BAD leadership = ZERO value
I don't think it can be that simple but......... how do you lose $1 billion in value? In this market? The simplest answer seems to be it wasn't lost, it never existed (yet).
palinc2000 wrote: The market value of THTX includes ZERO for the pipeline,,,,ZERO ZERO ZERO
We can argue on how much value should be ascribed to the pipeline but its not ZERO
qwerty22 wrote: I think Jfm has a point this time. Not all NASH companies are multiples of THTX, only the best and there are a few important assumptions you have to make right now to put THTX along side the best. The THTX dataset has great strengths, it also has holes and some weaknesses. I've been plugging away to say those weaknesses are important to how a NASH contender is viewed, I think they lie behind why the analysts ignore the stock. There are many head-to-head analysis of NASH programs or the numerous MOA employed in the fight against NASH, none of them ever include THTX or GH/IGF-1. I think we get to Ph3 with the market believing they haven't truly earned the right to be a Ph3 company, bizarre as that sounds. The way to do that is to supplement what should be an exciting dataset with one more important piece of info.
Right now, with the luxury of hindsight, I think they would have been better to have dove into a Ph2 as quickly as possible once Grinspoon's trial data gave them the reason to initiate, F2/F3, non-HIV exploratory study. I can't believe the regulatory talking would have taken so long for that, it would have provided the one piece of the puzzle that would allow them to go shoulder-to-shoulder with other NASH companies and I think it would have allowed THTX to be seen as a player. It also would have provided the empirical data to support the decision to throw 10's of millions at a Ph3. The longer this talking phase goes on and the further we get from the ideal outcome (EMA and FDA onboard for a straight Ph3) then the more devalued the present strategy becomes. It's strange because they shot for the moon here when caution has mostly been their way of doing things, maybe it still pays off.
Cancer is just early. All the preclinical has been positive and I'm super excited about getting some early positive signals but there is only so much you can say about a very early program. I think jfm's 6-9 months is fine for uncovering the earliest signs of an exciting drug but 12-18 months to really know the true potential here, to know how it might stack up against pre-existing treatments and other experimental drugs. There's a lot of questions to answer, the best we can hope for is they move through them with few delays until we can get to the point where the program can begin to be properly assessed.
palinc2000 wrote:
Jmf the preaching scientist is saying the successful clinical results are not a slam dunk thus this is why the company could not issue stock at a higher price!!! What a dumb statement
ALL other Public Companies involved im Nash clinical trials are valued at multiplles that of TH....
If TH data is that weak then why is TH involved?
scarlet1967 wrote: We can speculate all day re the timing, size and price tag for the deal, everyone is entitled to their opinion but the fact that their IR has not been successful is real.
As per a reliable source Leah was approached by cancer and NASH analysts more than a year ago so after more than a year she hasn't obviously been successful to bring them on board, so either she was lying or despite having two upcoming promising trials and multiple encouraging news she miserably failed to convince even one of those analysts, not a single one?
Why the company's website is less appealing than a fish and chips shop's website?
Why the investors presentation is taken down for days before a replacement is ready?
Why sending email notification prematurely?
Why not responding to emails?
Why not correcting false analysts reports by having interactive ongoing dialogue?
Why market doesn't ascribe $$ to their science?
Why other companies with less promising prospects are valued multiples of THTX?
There is a reason to have an IR department and the reason is to deal with all these questions now can someone tells me have they done anything to deal with those issues in case I have been a bit slow and missed...