RE:Crux Investor Interview Transcript Thank you for the link. A lot of information in this interview. This gives us a quite clear view of the potential and risks.
So in the 6-8 weeks, they should issue a very conservative guidance for 2021.
I note:
1) production : Q1 as we know is a weak quarter in terms of production.
as stacking resumes in late March numbers will increase and steady-state production is expected in 3-4Q
Positive : "worst behind us", problems solving at 80%. Negative : market is maybe not fully understanding the seasonality of the produciton
2) Shareholders : Orion sharholdings decrease was welcome by VIT, "encouraged" as he said. Could have bring the opp to be included in some Index, ETF.
3) Financing : at least 75M of the debt being repaid in 2021
4) Cost of operations :
High sustaining capital year as their 2021 budget includes some important work. In particular, i note they plan to build a water treatment facility.
5) Adding value:
exploration : 14 high priority exploration targets. Focus on Nuggest.
Eagle : at curretn POG, make sense to have deeper pit. from below 300m to 600m / all-year stacking is still an objective, procution improvement should increase production rate. So 200K/year is the low rate. 275K/year the best scenario.
6) market : 2021 : proving production is back on track is what is needed for 2021. 2022 should be a very good year then (I suspect with costs going down susbtantially compared to 2021).
My opinion : if someone wants to invest in VGCX, the next 3-6 months are maybe the last opp to buy below 15 CAD (obviously without major POG change but this isn't worth mentionning each time - oups did I mention it anyway ? :-)
my question : at current pps, is there any value given by the market to the exploration program ?