RE:Capex
fishmillion wrote: Hey Joe... sure its a bit fishy at 300 - 350 milll... here is my thinking... 2016 estimate .... 200 mill excluding financing cost, interest, and 1 yr sustaining capital.... so we know interest 7 % of 200 million for 2 years) is 28 million.... construction will be at the earliest 2022.... so an escalator of 1.5 ( min) is applicable from 2016 numbers .... this is consistent with other projects i have followed ...those in construction will confirm.... so.... 200 x 1.5 = 300 + 28 = 328.... the rest is the tko factor ....check my track record on my other forecasts ( minus the sarcasm).. but im usually at least in the ballpark
Your initial post said 350m +, so now it is 300 - 350.
I agree that it will likely be higher than the 2016 estimate of 200m, but not by that much.
If the mine plan was from 2000, adding 50% would be reasonable, but from 2016, not so much. Inflation since 2016 has not been close to 50%.
This is the 43-101 technical report on Florence, most should read it if they are heavily into TKO.
Section 21 contains the mine costs, page 207 is the direct page on pre production mine costs with 37M contingency built in for a total of 204M. The estimate notes +- 20%, so a 20% contingency already built in has that factored into the costs. You can add 20% and get to 245M but TKO has a reputation of bringing projects online, on time, and on budget.
Florence 43-101 technical report
This is a more recent summary of the project, you will note if you read it the variance of 227M and 200M on pre production costs, which differ from the noted 2016 technical report of 204M.
Florence Project summary, recent
I never did ask NF where he got his 600M figure of cash on hand from... maybe added the 400M to the 250M rather than subtracted them?
KW