Gaussian curve My projections for the stock value for 2024, in 3 years.
Range / Probability / Explanation
0-20$ / 5% / Black Swan event. Accounting fraud or reverse factoring as Carillion did are very unlikely considering that the new CFO and the new CEO would have brought that up by now (skeletons are taken out when new management steps in). I have done extensive channel checks on this so has the CDPQ or JFL as confirmed to me by a very reliable source (they did not tell me which one by I suspect the former).
20-40$ / 5% / EBITDA lingering at 600-700m with no growth. Not very likely considering infra programs in the UK, US, Canada, surely MEA and Asia and the strong positionning of Atkins including in nuclear and renewable energies plus transportation and even a 600m EBITDA would command a 40$ + price with no LSTK and value of 407.
40-60$ / 35% / EBITDA at 800m, poor growth, no LSTK though, sale of 407 to pay for substantial additional losses and mistakes.
60-100$ / 55% / EBITDA at 1B, buyback reduced float to 150m. Pure engineering.
Mathematical expectancy is about 60$. Cool.
5% (10$) + 5% (30$) + 35% (50$) + 55% (80$)