2021 Cannabis Outlook ! Very good days ahead ! 2021 outlook—hindsight 2020 as the cannabis industry advances
The Desjardins Takeaway
We expect continued robust industry sales momentum through 2021—sales should be up ~40% vs
estimated 2020 levels as stores are added, prices decline, quality improves and more 2.0 products are sold. In the US, we could see some potentially significant near-term catalysts
(ie the Georgia Senate runoff elections), which could kick-start 2021. (DONE !)
We also believe that companies’ financial performance should start to show profitability potential in 2021.
Lastly, valuations found a bottom in 2020, which should help limit downside risk.
Highlights
Industry sales should see continued momentum in 2021. Sales had been reaching new monthly highs since the spring of 2020 on the back of more retail stores, declining prices, improving quality and the legalization of cannabis 2.0.
Canada’s sales trends continue to mirror those of Colorado since legalization, which would suggest 2021 recreational sales of C$3.5B, up from the ~C$2.5B estimated for 2020.
Company financial metrics should finally hit an inflection point. While late 2019 was a period which saw many companies start cost-cutting initiatives in an attempt to accelerate the path to positive EBITDA, the problems ran deeper, which led to senior management/board changes and business transformations.
Valuations appear to have found a floor. We have greater comfort that industry valuations have finally settled. LP valuations have been consistently trading within a narrow range since fall 2019. Valuations for the extractors/manufacturers and retailers appear to have found a bottom in 2020, with retailers trading in a narrow range since the summer and extractors/manufacturers showing more volatility within a bigger range.
Potential upcoming catalysts.
(1) Georgia Senate runoff elections;
(2) MORE, SAFE Banking and STATES acts;
(3) New York and other US states legalizing cannabis;
(4) improving company financial metrics;
(5) Cannabis Act review;
(6) cannabis health products; and (7) mergers and acquisitions.
My thought
FAF is well position to grab good part of the market already in Canada :
With recent acquisiitons in the retail nad probably more expansion comin in the US.
In US with Circle K, I hope we have some news for recent state like Arizona and NY is coming fast !!!!
Waiting for Q4 with Huge sales with recent acquisition.
I read a recent report from BMO, dated january 15, there forecast for :
2021 are about 197M$ off sales.
2022 : 216M$ of sales.
But I am not sure if they consider the full picture also for US market !
Waiting for very good Year end results 2020 !
Time to comments and discuss it !!
Any comments ??
GL LONGS !