RE:Thank youWhile you never like to lose coverage from a good analyst, this is clearly a positive development. In his final comments, he revealed again how he always was looking at the worst case scenario for TH rather than something more balanced. On Trogarzo, the early indications are that Fostemsavir has not caused it any problems and there are not any other competitive drugs on the horizon. On the potential patent cliffs, there is a definite patent cliff on the Egrifta indication patent in 2023 but the company is dealing with that via the new pen injector. It is possible they will be negatively impacted on the margin but the new pen injector and the F8 formulation will be far superior to anything a generic company might come up with for Egrifta and there is a chance they will ignore Egrifta altogether. Not to mention that no one should be buying TH's stock for Egrifta in lipo in any event. By the time this is even an issue, cancer may be approved and that is going to be the focus of investors, along with NASH. His comment on the high risk nature and unclear regulatory path for NASH also looks a wee bit stale at this point since the FDA has authorized their advance into phase III in general NASH already and the path forward, while still needing a few blanks filled in, is no longer anywhere near as murky as he suggests..
As I mentioned before, Luc must have told this guy his dog was ugly and as Abrahams seemed unable to ever to look at TH in a balanced way. He does deserve credit, however, for getting the Trogarzo sales projection much more right than everyone else. His Trogarzo sales projections were actually too low initially (that is how low they were!) but he was still much closer to the mark.
scarlet1967 wrote: Theratechnologies Inc.
Discontinuing Research Coverage
Our view:
We are discontinuing research coverage of THTX due to reallocation of
analyst resources. Our final rating is Sector Perform with a final price target
of $2.00.
Investment summary
Our final rating on the stock is Sector Perform, and our final price target
is $2.00 / share.
Our view has been that sales of Trogarzo in HIV and Egrifta in lipodystrophy
provide stable cash flows to fund operations and additional pipeline
opportunities for the company, such as the upcoming NASH trial and
promising sortilin oncology program, and that recent commercial efforts
have yielded improvements. However, our view has been that the
current share price accurately balances unknowns about the long-term
competitiveness of Trogarzo, potential patent cliffs for Egrifta, high-risk
nature and unclear regulatory path for NASH, and early stage of the
oncology portfolio.