RE:RE:Mackie Report is outThis is just a politically correct report,,,He could not put a too high PT after telling Dubuc that the Offering would be a hard sell.... I think there will be frequent upgrades to the PT as time advances
quote=SPCEO1]Mackie's report is 44 pages, so a lot of effort went into it. But here is how he reached his target price:
"Our valuation for TH (US$3.95/share) is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology that factors in the company’s commercial segment and the NASH project. To value TH’s commercial segment, we applied a 2.9x 2021 EV/Sales multiple to our new 2021 total revenue estimate of US$77.6M discounted by 10% - equaling US$2.27/share. To value TH’s NASH project, we calculated a probability-adjusted NPV assuming a 10% success rate – equaling US$1.69/share (see Figure 33). Our final target price of US$3.95/share is the sum of the value of the two parts."
He actually has NASH sales at nearly $600 million in 2027 and almost $2 billion in 2033. He uses a 15% discout rate. The 10% success rate assumption is why he adds so little to the price target. So, for every 10% more you would like to add to the success rate, you can add another US$1.69 to the target price. So, if you think TH has a 50% chance of success, you would end up with a price target of US$10.72.
SPCEO1 wrote: It is a big report that I don't have time to read at the moment but he raises the target price to $3.95 US as he gives some credit for NASH. More later.
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