RE:RE:RE:analysts estimating the bomber at $.20 , j'ai mon voage I took a closer look at other assets and liabilities a while back and while most of it is of the provision/expense recurring variety, some of it is one time esp CRJ remnants due to MHI. So having some cash from among other things Alstom coming in later to offset these could come in very handy. Otherwise they have to say debt is $4.5B now for example and then later try to explain (once again!) why they have a cash shortfall (because of that CRJ/MHI one time stuff). And of course this later settlement works for Alstom too as they seemed to have received pressure for shareholders to pay less thus the rights offering for example. My interpretation of CDPQ's silence is that it relates to BBDs option. It never made sense to me that LB didn't get his pound of flesh from CDPQ at the time of the deal a year ago. CDPQ is a significant financial beneficiary here AND they now have shares In a large public co as opposed to the mess they invested in with BT.
Jim99999 wrote: I'm not sure it's meaningful, but I noticed CDPQ chose to not issue a news release on closing the Alstom deal. I'm hopeful this may indicate that they too are unhappy about the closing adjustments, and will challenge them also.
If CDPQ supports BBD's challenge, this may get settled reasonably quickly. I imagine Alstom does not want to start their relationship with their largest shareholder on bad terms.
Jim
PabloLafortune wrote: If they do nothing about the debt and interest costs emains high, the backlog drops significantly every quarter, other liabilities come due, and the EBITDA doesn't meet the targets, 20 cents US could happen. Otoh, if they remove a big chunk of the debt via a convertible debenture for example (3-4% with a $1.25 to $1.50 conversion price?), refinance the remaining debt at lower rates, exceed EBITDA targets, fund other liabilities with other assets (r/e, Alstom settlement, MHI, ???), (they could even convert the As to convertible debentures thus giving the family some income on their shares..), $2.00 could happen. My money is on the latter.