RE:Incredible Value Projected EBITDA of 21M on 220M shs o/s yields about .10c p/s so a 30 pe gives a potential price of $3. If product yields are as projected and wholesale spot prices are similar to 2020, I think they can do closer to 90 -100M revenues this year. With an estimated current EV of around 250M using current share price, a EV to 2021 sales ratio of about 2.5, which could potentially double this year again projecting a price target of around $3. For now I think $3 to $3.50 is a good potential 12 month target range assuming successful execution of all company stated operational targets.
My thinking is the shares are stuck in this 1.30 to 2 range until Q1 guidance finally lives up to expectations. Q3 and Q4 2020 were big disappointments so they need to prove they can turn this around. If Q1 is more of the same I will reduce or sell my holdings. If Q1 lives up to expectations, I expect the shares to quickly move into a new trading range between 2 to 2.75.
other factors that can impact the share price:
1) if/when George does yet another capital raise to expand buildout plans. That will definitely apply downward pressure on the shares.
2) if the 300k sf buildout is on time and wholesale prices remain firm then 2022 potential sales could start to get factored in to a 2022 forecast and bump up the shares in 2H 21.
3) if the company fires on all cylinders in 2021 there is potential for Indus to garner a Cali top tier leader type valuation which could bump up the EV to sales ratio near 10.
4) legalization and or decriminalization at Federal level results in an upward re-rating of all well positioned companies in the sector as deep pocketed capital will finally enter the space.
all imo