RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Realistic? Unrealistic? Do numbers lie? What numbers are you guys talking about? OOIP? I've read all the reports put out by both Haywood Securities (who has a vested interest in price valuation increases) as well as the company itself. From my knowledge (and correct me if I'm wrong), Reco has not made anything more than a speculative estimate at OOIP and OGIP. In order to truly place valuation to the stock price (outside the speculation of "de-risking") you need a few more things. Let me give you a fairly simple breakdown.
-OOIP/OGIP
-recoverable reserves (based off an analysis of gamma logs, density, porosity, W%, thermal gradients, etc
-Evaluate the formation: how tight is the shale? Is it thermally mature? How many payzones have we found? What are their thickness?
-What tight of pressure head does the gas have inside the reservoir? What is Bo, Bg, Bob, formation volume factor, etc (study them if you don't know). What impacts will these on produced oil and gas at atmospheric pressure/temp?
-What is the quality of the oil? Is it a light grade with a high volume of refinable distillated byproducts? Or do we have something comparable to a heavier Canadian or Venezuelan Oil that produces 80% as much gasoline as a Texas crude?
Where are we? Are pipelines feasible? That's a billion dollar investment, where are we going to get the money? Farm out? or dilution. Both are going to dramatically impact stock values and must be considered for our investors. Do we farm out? We ARE a small company that does have the capital to expand operations from wellhead to sales. There's billions required.
How long is the payback period of our investment? What is the net present value? Are our lifting costs accurate in comparison to what we assumed during exploration (seldom the case).
As you can see, there are many unknowns. The company has never came out and said people are going to be billionaires here. I would LOVEEEEE if my small amount netted me a couple hundred k. But they haven't given us even a C.O.S. because they simply do not have all the required data to say how much oil is even in the ground, which is what first year petroleum eng students learn to do (and they've got 4 years to learn everything!)
So sarcasm aside, I say just be careful guys. We have something very promising but a couple of you have invested your life savings into a lottery stock. That doesn't make you objective, and you're not willing to listen to economics OR engineering expertise. Are you really sure you know what you're into?