RE:RE:RE:Taurx Phase 3 Trial UpdateThanks for your response. Always good to hear another point of view. I'll elaborate on my thinking.
If they can only get $5m for their TauRX stake then I guess I'd say it's better to keep the lottery ticket. But if they can actually fetch the stated book value of $40m or higher then I think they should sell.
Here's a more recent (2018) article suggesting a much more modest valuation, which again presumes some success in the current trial:
https://www.bllnr.sg/news/taurx-the-genting-backed-singaporean-pharmaceutical-startup-taurx-talks-$2-5b-valuation
The actual valuation upon a successful outcome is a obviously only conjectural at this point. But I feel it's pretty fanciful to think Dundee could walk away with $800m. At the $2.5b valuation quoted above, Dundee's stake would be worth $100m. Given the history of AD trials, and the genesis of this particular trial, I think it's exceedingly optimistic to put the odds of success over 25%. So the expected value is now < $25m.
I agree they don't need the cash. But I'd be much happier to see them sell and invest the proceeds in something where they have uncommon insight, even if it's another risky enterprise like junior mining.
Also: If this trial is a failure then I think the value of Dundee's stake will wither to near 0. This is not a large pharma with many irons in the fire. To carry on their work they will need additional funding, and after another failed trial it would likely be very dilutative, if availalbe at all. Also remember that the therapy is a modified form of Methylene Blue, not exactly a next-gen drug.