RE:RE:EBITDA and share valuation.The crazy part of that valuation (derived form teh Co. website and industry std multiples) is not the potentially very high share price (on successful completion of the Tigris confirmatory Trial) but the paragraph
"The EBITDA figures (Spectral's) assumes 100k patient target PMX market (not 120k, not 192k - see my previous email), US only (not Canada) , 2 cartridges only (not 3) , USD only (not Cdn $ ), PMX only (not Dialco, EAA worldwide, etc.) ."
Spectral says the targeted market is 100,000 - 120,000 patients in the US.
This does NOT take into account the increasing number of hospitalized Covid patients that show elevated Endotoxins, and that seemingly come down with Severe Sepsis. This is not to say that PMX is a cure/treatment for Covid, however it seems that it could be used on Covid patients that degrade, become endotoxemic,start to experience organ damage, acquire other infections, etc.
Based on over 1M hospitalizations, I have heard figures that as much as 1/3 of those patients become Septic (and therefore could benefit from PMX treatments?). Could that triple or quadruple the number of PMX treatments if Covid-19 remains as a threat? Are long-term Covid sufferors (survived but experieinced long term damage to organs) more likley to experience Sepsis in the future, more likely to need dialysis as a result of AKI?
Did Spectral's TAM (total addressable market) just explode higher, once it is confirmed that many Covid patients experience Sepsis as a result of their ICU stay?
I'm wondering if my restated 192k (from 120k) is understated? Should it be 300,000? 400,000? more? Also Cdn patients need to be added into teh figures (another 10% based on population?).
What's Dialco worth if their only two competitors in the HHD market acheived valuations of $ 2B USD each? (one was acquired NxStage, and one IPO'd). If Spectral was to acheive a similar valuation, that is $ 8 USD/share for Dialco. I would be more conservative and say $ 3- $5 based on the fact that Spectral only has the rights for NA (the world's biggest market)
Still that's an 8 - 10 bagger potential on just the Dialco alone !? (with home use approval pending)
Investors need only to asses the likelihood of a comlete fail on Tigris and a total rejection of the DIMI (albeit SAMI already FDA approved). I'll bet Kellum has made his assessment.