RE:RE:Slide 6 ...AntibeTribe wrote:
interesting observation Mugs. While we are all bored on a weekend, if you have the time I would love to know what your hypothetical timeline for partnering may look like?
Interesting question as (I believe) it relates to many variables.
Management wants the value of the patents to drive the negotiations and they need to prove the value of the IP first. Have they completed that with the new molecule and an IBD drug or is that just the beginning of the value creation?
I believe we are in value creation mode and will not entertain any offers that fall outside our lower limit - whatever that may be for the first drug or for the family of drugs.
The value depends on limited patents to 2030ish ... OR ... do we have enough proof that helps partners see that we are on a better IP trajectory for new delivery molecules?
The present value of future OTENA profits at some reduced rate to allow for Phase 3 success probability is the least of their concerns ... but do we have extended IP for greater value? To be determined.
We are also in the middle of COVID trials which could offer additional value (if successful). Is it H2S/Aspirin for therapeutic purposes and could it be used for more than just COVID ? What about other viruses ? May it leapfrog OTENA into Phase 3? Unfortunately, we don't know.
To what extent does 352 play in valuation. Interestingly enough, Dan decided to offer a peak sales number in the USA ... so ... is there a negotiating purpose for that number?
If I'm guessing correctly and GUD completed their shelf prospectus in preparation for additional licensing opportunities, including ATE's LATAM licenses - ATE would need to prove their value before Goodman would agree to pay for extending the family of drugs to LATAM and/or other geographies.
I don't think we're close yet with any deals as a win/win requires more risk reduction - if in fact there is more value to wring out of our family of drugs. I think there is room and time is required to prove it.
I would say we're still 3-4 months (maybe 6 months) away and that's purely a guess as to what it will take to remove risk and get the dollars we're looking for. Then again, if Big Pharma comes knocking and they want to bypass all these potential partners, they will have to pay up.
Unfortunately ... too many bits of information that we need but don't have.