RE:My personal target is $3It depends on your time horizon.
If you're going to gone by Easter then OK, I'll go with that number
You might be a liitle on the low side if you hang around till late Spring.
And by Summer, well, who can say.
Using Henry Hub average pricing of $2-$3.00, each 1TCF is worth about $1B to the finder/producer.
Prices in Colombia are 2X the level of Henry Hub, and existing supply is shrinking, and demand is rising.
From their website:
Maria Conchita: 160BCF (80% WI of 200 BCF estimate)
Sinu-g: 700BCF (70% WI of 1 TCF estimate)
Tiburon: 200-800BCF (10-40% WI of 2 TCF estimate)
Total best estimate ~ 1.06 - 1.66 TCF
@ Henry Hub Prices = $ 1.06B - 1.66 B
@ Colombia Prices = $ 2.12B - 3.32 B
Using 100 million fully diluted shares outstanding
Then:
@ HHub prices = $10.60 - $16.60 USD per share =~ $13-$20 CAD per share
and
@ Colombia prices(2X HHub) = $21.20 - $33.202USD or ~ $26 - $40CAD
The development plan could accelerate if a farm-in partner came a'knockin and wanted to get in on the Tiburon play earlier.
With strong cash flow about to hit the books next month GASX management is in the driver's seat as to any deals to be cut.
You can see on their website first page the 1, 2, and 3 'plays'.
Using their management's best estimate of production across all 3 that they arrive at 610 MMscfd
(factored for their Working Interest) with a total NPV(10) of US$4,715 MM. (i.e. $4.7B USD)
That would equate to $47USD per share (4,700MM/100MM shares)
or
~$60.00 CAD
- They're about to start cash-flow from 'Play 1'.
- They have a 'binding offer' to get going on 'Play 2'.
- And 'Play 3' would double the value of Play 1 and 2 combined.
Potentially by next year at this time if they aren't taken over.
Nothing to get excited about really - it's just mathematics.
I've got till at least Halloween if not New Year's 2022 to stick around with this one.