Sunday morning Musings There are people posting here who don't seem to understand what's going on. There are people here whose views on this stock can most diplomatically be described as "obtuse'. This is by no means a blanket statement. This is an open forum, and participants are doubtless all shapes and sizes, and opinions. Without prejudice, it's often quite easy to develop a sense of a poster's experience or their level of investment sophistication, once they've posted a few times.
Some here would be best advised to wake up and hit the reset button. The various comments here about the recent trading in this stock run the gamut from sensible and level-headed, to the not-so-much so.
Here's my take, and I'm pretty confident I'm right. Never certain, just confident. I'll put it very simply, and in so doing, I'll be paying homage to this stock.
This is Xebec's way of correcting.
Most stocks have corrections after making huge moves, surely everyone here will acknowledge that. Let me refresh the memories of those here who need refreshing. Xebec's closing high at $11.20 was on January 18th, exactly three weeks ago tomorrow. With regards to the generally accepted principle that it's perfectly normal for stocks to correct after huge moves, in the month before that closing high, Xebec had come from $7.57, a gain of 48% in one month. In the two months before that closing high, Xebec gained 96%, from $5.72.
Most stocks would easily have corrected 20 or 30 or even 40 percent after a move like that. Not this little jewel. Very bluntly if people here are perturbed by recent trading, they shouldn't be in the market. This stock's performance has been extraordinary. It may sound funny but it's true, this is how Xebec corrects. It has a very shallow pullback, sometimes so shallow as to be unnoticeable, and then it meanders around its baseline for a while before embarking on another strong upleg.
Let me ask you, "what direction do you think the next real move be?... Now let me answer, in my opinion. The next significant move will be in the direction of the primary trend. The trend that's been in place for 3 years now. Now, if you will, let me ask you a different question. Is the next market-moving news likely to move the stock higher, or lower? In my opinion, barring Kurt or Prabhu being in an unfortunate steamroller accident, any surprise on the news front is far more likely to be positive than negative. I think most here would agree.
People have unbelievably short memories. One person here posted that I was wrong when I suggested that a noticeable uptick in volume would occur after the uplisting. That's a good one. The 10-day average volume is now 789,174, the 30-day is 956,231, and the 50-day is 842,188. Whoever posted that is a walking example of a short memory. He/she posted that yesterday, Saturday. The day before that was posted just happened to be the lightest trading day so far in 2021, with a closing volume of just 397,463 shares. Just
Rather than whining and trying to find fault and level unsubstantiated criticism, the more objective and level-headed here would rightly observe that Xebec has a consistent history of shrinking volumes towards the end of a Xebecian correction. Take a look at the chart. Seriously, Look at the one year chart! Look at the volume during corrections. You won't find many corrections in the normal sense, so look at the volumes during periods of little change in price. Take it a step further and exercise your mind. Ask yourself "What might be the implications of this dwindling volume recently? "
I posted a week ago that I was not happy with the trading the previous Friday, and that a close below $9.52 might signal further weakness ahead. The stock had traded as low as $9.43 and closed at $9.56 that day. The stock opened at $9.75 on Monday, and that was the low of the day. It has never traded as low as $9.75 since.
Please remember that this post is addressed to the uninitiated here, the doubters, and the ones spewing unsubstantiated guesses. There aren't many, and this is a good board, but there are certainly a few.
This is my call, without qualifications or reservations"
Xebec is in the throes of its unique version of a correction, after a huge move. Tapering volume tells us the end of this pseudo-correction is near, and the primary trend will reassert itself soon.
This stock might very well reassert itself with a vengeance.
It will be three weeks ago tomorrow since the closing high. The timing is theatrical. The price from which to resume its climb is almost so perfect as to seem very well-staged. Xebec closed at $10.08 on Friday, $1.12 off its closing high 3 weeks ago. It closed exactly ten percent lower than its all-time closing high of $11.20. Exactly ten percent. And it did so after a precisely 3 week sideways consolidation, which is very close to the average length of its corrections. Xebec shareholders have had to endure a 10% decline. Tough luck.
This correction has spawned considerable discussion, and probably more than a few defections.
Impatience is the bane of successful investing. Unfortunately, impatience is a deeply ingrained human trait. Most unfortunately for those most severely afflicted.