RE:Interfor will be taken over or...Thanks for that Lifeisgood. Your math isn't far off from mine.
Using an EBITDA multiple (PE) of 3, and 800m in annualized EBITDA, I am getting a price of just under $40/share. The difference between you and I being is I netted back the debt against the EBITDA.
At a PE of 6, and $800m EBITDA, we are looking at $72/share which sounds insane, I know - but the math is the math.
But for arguments sake, lets look at a modest $500m EBITDA at a PE of 6 - we are at a market cap of just over $3B ($45/share). Thats a 60% upside from here!
Due to the squeaky balance sheet and cashflow generation, this thing is a very strong buy. Options for IFP are limited... growth via acquisition (there's not much out there for sale), special dividend (I am thinking this is last resort for management), or get taken out at probably a decent premium (would have to be > $50). Share buybacks are unlikely to keep pace with where the market capitalization is headed.
GLTA.