IMV Inc IMVIF

RE:RE:IMV 5 year plan

[qwerty22]

On Ovarian. If you followed the story for some years then you might think for most of that time Ovarian was the lead and dlbcl 2nd. That now seems to have flipped. They don't have as much clarity about the Ovarian program as dlbcl. They've promised to try to deliver more clarity in2021 so let's wait and see, they promised that for dlbcl and seem to be delivering it. Short term it's all about dlbcl and to a lesser extent the basket trial.

I'd throw in the basket trial because it seems to offer two opportunities.

 1) To strengthen the dlbcl story by offering further evidence of the effectiveness of the dpx+pembro combo.
2) Giving us the potential for one or more of the indications getting flagged for further investigation thru expansion of recruitment. That's potentially also something that could happen rapidly if the data supports it I think.

qwerty22 wrote:

The news is they've now more clearly signaled how they intend to proceed on the regulatory front with dlbcl, I was looking for more clarity there so I consider it 'news' even if we don't yet know the outcome of that process. Companies are always talking about pivotal moments but this feels like it's building to a genuine one. People taking positions in anticipation of that makes sense.

I think my previous comment under-sold the sitation. If they do proceed with a dpx+pembro then some sort of deal will have to be cut with merck on the details of the next trial. The big question is how deep that partnership goes, to a large extent we can judge this program by Merck's interest in it. I'm thinking from weakest to strongest.

1) Superficial interest. Free drug for trial, data sharing etc. The type of relation Merck seems to have with many, many biotech and the way I think of the relationship at present.
2) Cost sharing on next trial based on the fact both drugs potentially benefit from new revenue.
3) Larger cash/equity commitment to the company as a signal to accelerate this program and anything that comes out of the basket trial.
4) Buyout???

I think if they can't get greater commitment from Merck (scenario 1) then it's going to look weak from an entity that's had an insider look at the data and effectively not thought there's much need to accelerate this in anyway. 2-4 all look to have value if at the very least they significantly reduce the cost of the next trial, but really at this stage you'd want more than just that. 

How are people thinking about this?

 

JimmyJ wrote:

 

With the recent uptick in share price from seamingly no news, I'm wondering if this is the result of leaked news with more to come or if this is just the result of the same old shorting patterns year after year.  Thoughts?   

Does anyone have insights to share on the ovarian studies?  When will we hear more about FDA discussions for phase 3 and how long will phase 3 take?  Is IMV planning to go at Phase 3 alone?