we may be for a big surprisewe may be for a big surprise, which may take peyto all other ng stocks to earlier highs much sooner. Just read this report:
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nalysts at The Schork Group indicated the “early whisper number” for the next Energy Information Administration (EIA) report is in the mid-180s Bcf, while the following two reports could fetch draws well into the 200s Bcf. This would bring total working gas in storage to 2,000 Bcf by Feb. 19. “This is significant,” The Schork Group said. “As a result, the odds of finishing this winter above the five-year avarage have collapsed.”
The analysts said the probability of hitting the EIA’s end-of-season forecast of 1.592 Tcf cratered after the latest EIA report plunged from 58% to 42%. The chance of ending the season above the five-year average (1.694 Tcf) is a mere 22%, they said.
EBW Analytics Group struck a similar tone. The firm said that over the next four weeks, storage relative to the five-year average is likely to drop at least 350 Bcf, creating a year/year deficit of 150 Bcf or more. During the remaining weeks until the last draw of the season, this deficit could grow by another 250 Bcf, creating a deficit greater than 400 Bcf.
“This stunning plunge in storage inventories relative to five-year levels could finally awaken the gas market to the severity of the structural supply deficit expected this year, driving natural gas prices significantly higher,” EBW said. “It is difficult to gauge how quickly the market will recognize the need to reprice the forward curve. By this summer, though, natural gas may need to increase to $4.00/MMBtu or higher.”