RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Short interest on THTX plummetsI am curious why you think it will be late 2021 before we get the first feedback from the phase I cancer trial. The trial could start in April. If it did, the dose escalation portion fo the trial would be done by summer, I would think. Do you think the company would make any comment if they saw promising results after even the first two dose escalation patients - ie. no safety issues and some initial tumor response?
My impression is they might share such details.
Now if the trial does not start until late June, than late in 2021 is more likely before we get any info.
But I think it is possible we could get some interesting info, should it exist, earlier and even before they establish the maximum tolerable dose.
That beig said, it is always worth remembering that everything in drug trials seems to take longer than seems reasonable or what any company doing the trial says initially.
qwerty22 wrote: Here's ten things I think we might find out about the drug over the course of Ph1 and the very rough timeframe I think we might get some indication. The final group are things that aren't fixed into the Ph1 process and so may come Ph1, Ph2 or never.
Early Ph1 (late 2021)
1) Dose
2) Initial safety signals
3) Initial efficacy signal
4) Size of human therapeutic window
Late Ph1 (mid/late 2022)
5) Lead indication(s)
6) Initial response rate (very preliminary)
7) initial durability (incomplete, out to 6 months)
8) Range of drug (multiple indications???)
Flexible
9) Biomarker/sortilin analysis
10) MOA
We may get lucky and see an efficacy signal in multiple indications early depending on recruitment during the dose phase or advancement on the MOA. The timing of many things seem fixed into the process but depend on managements willingness to share.
SPCEO1 wrote: No oncology data until next year???? I am not sure why you think that. The trial is to start in the second quarter and since it is open label, we can expect to hear about any good news close to when the company discovers it. So, there shoould be quite a lot of important, likely market moving, cancer news this year. Moreover, I suspect the larger institutions in the deal were likely in it more for cancer than for NASH. We also should be hearing something important from the AACR conference on cancer in early April. On NASH, the news has been announced that they are a phase III player but the stock has not discounted that yet and so investors are getting NASH for free, something that is not true for any other NASH stock. While the company has been boneheaded about addressing that huge valuation gap so far, it sounds like they may finally be waking up. So, 2021 could be a banner year for TH's stock as some of the past unjustices and the impact of the idiotic share offering pass.
jeffm34 wrote: you do if you think there is nothing to move the share price in the short or medium term. All we have for the rest of 2021 is product sales to go on. Oncology data won't start coming out until next year. The confirmation of an already announced phase 3 NASH trial isn't going to move anything
SPCEO1 wrote: Some certainly are going to do that, or already have done that, but I really don't think all 16.7 million new shares are likely to be sellers as soon as the stock hits $2.75 (or $2.50 depending on how or if you want to incorporate a value for the warrants).
jeffm34 wrote: It's a free ride with the warrants. Sell the shares as soon as they are profitable and you still have lots of risk free upside with the warrants.