2021 outlook—hindsight 2020 as the cannabis industry advances
The Desjardins Takeaway
 
We expect continued robust industry sales momentum through 2021—sales should be up ~40% vs
estimated 2020 levels as stores are added, prices decline, quality improves and more 2.0 products are
sold. In the US, we could see some potentially significant near-term catalysts
(ie the Georgia Senate runoff elections), which could kick-start 2021. (DONE !)

We also believe that companies’ financial performance should start to show profitability potential in 2021.

Lastly, valuations found a bottom in 2020, which should help limit downside risk.

Highlights
Industry sales should see continued momentum in 2021. Sales had been reaching new monthly highs since the spring of 2020 on the back of more retail stores, declining prices, improving quality and the legalization of cannabis 2.0.

Canada’s sales trends continue to mirror those of Colorado since legalization, which would suggest 2021 recreational sales of C$3.5B, up from the ~C$2.5B estimated for 2020.
 
Company financial metrics should finally hit an inflection point. While late 2019 was a period which saw many companies start cost-cutting initiatives in an attempt to accelerate the path to positive EBITDA, the problems ran deeper, which led to senior management/board changes and business transformations.

Valuations appear to have found a floor. We have greater comfort that industry valuations have finally settled. LP valuations have been consistently trading within a narrow range since fall 2019. Valuations for the extractors/manufacturers and retailers appear to have found a bottom in 2020, with retailers trading in a narrow range since the summer and extractors/manufacturers showing more volatility within a bigger range.

Potential upcoming catalysts.
(1) Georgia Senate runoff elections;
(2) MORE, SAFE Banking and STATESacts;
(3) New York and other US states legalizing cannabis;
(4) improving company financial metrics;
(5) Cannabis Act review;
(6) cannabis health products; and (7) mergers and acquisitions.