My charts Feb 11Well, well, that WAS quite a day and decided to hold off chart comments until it was done. Not surprised in the afternoon sell off, afterall BIR was short term toppy before we saw today's parobolic rise, so for a while it was an orgasmic experience me until it blew (lol) the top off but I still ended up with a warm and fuzzy feeling for the most part on close LOL!
So here's what I see short term out with reference and support of a 1, 3 and 5 year BIR chart. Condensed as best possible to save you from diatribe boredom.
Weekly NG storage report draw was -171 about average of the analysts estimates. As NG March futures retreated post report so began Birchcliff's profit selloff. Note that NG will be trading forward April futures soon so if BIR is going too make so real hay well into the $3's the window IMO has to happen say maybe the next couple of weeks tops.
6 month chart - broke my 1.00 threshold bar off the 200 day moving average from the current rise (2.03) by roughly .25. Major support line roughly 2.50 slightly rising by day going forward. Median support after todays rise and range roughly works out to 2.85-2.90 so to continue some gains into the 3's BIR has to stay above the area, revisit 3.29 which to the penny stopped exactly on an 8 month rising resistance line, break thru again on volume before it can test new highs again challenging 1, 3,and 5 year long term resistance lines.
1 year chart notes as of today - Getting Toppy. Minor resistance remaining at around 3.50 then clear to a lofty 5.25 area.
3 year chart notes as of today - Also Toppy. Minor rising risitance also 3.50, Other rising past resistance line areas, 3.75, 4.10, 4.70.
5 year chart notes as of today - Major resistance at the 4.25 area going as far back from Jan. 2003
So of course all IMO, not too hard to see where the bank analysts get their 4-4.50 targets from. If BIR can make gains and support in the 3.80 to 4.00 mark before the NG shoulder season hopefully everyone here will have done well by then.
Again my opinion for what it's worth, and like horse's arses everyone has one.
PS, Shenty46 is right, if things can get stupid at 5.25ish as I see it, and NG fundy's are revealing cracks that it is possible, I see nothing on the longest term charts that suggest it can't be in the 11.00-12.00 area sometime into next heating season. But it has to get to $4 first without big boy interference lol.
Recap: First the stars have to align, (no Jesus doesn't have to walk the earth again lol), BIR has to get to the $4 area post second quarter, a hot NG summer demand south of the border especially in the triangle NE I have referred to, love AECO current spot but that's not where the /demand/money lies as canuck NG is still Henry Hub driven, unfortunately, unless BIR is pounding it's maximum unhedged production into the pipelines as we speak to continue it's current market edge.
Blown the load again, lol, please do your own DD and GLTA, cheers.