RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:IT DOES NOT MATTER HOW WE SEE Q4 RESULTS, WHAT MATTER IS HOWLook Pablo.
Please understand, I'm not saying that Balance Sheet is good right now either. The interst of the liabilities are killing the FCF, and the preasure on BA is tremendous to keep the FCF coming from Revenues just to service the LTD. I can't imagine that, all of a company's annual FCF going to service the debt. But that's what we're dealt with here.
What I am saying is that. Finally these crooks have no pages in the Financial statements to hide all these short falls. Now the transparency in the statements will be obvious. So they have to proform.There is nowhere to hide, under pages of Financial numbers. If Revenues are a problem? They know what they have to do. If Margins are problem? They know what they have to do. Life, in running this company (BBA) has become simplistic, for Management and for the Shareholders as well. Investment in commons for new shareholders will be easier to assess. Whether it will come, or not is another story. I don't see it coming back quickly. Because there will be no positive FCF for another year easy. By 2022 we'll start to see the small $100 Annual positive FCF. Because that's when the Pearson plant capacity for the G7500 gets under way. And other factors change as well. So there is a lot of moving parts here still in 2021, for the stability of BA before investors start to show up. The measures announced today for the extra $400M in CF to take this into $900M range of FCF will not be done fully till 2023. So the SP recovery won't go into effect till mid 2022 to 2023. Even then the debt will take a big chunk of that FCF. I see $350 M at best annualy
The SP is played for the time being by day traders, and the shorts, and the Algo's, and black boxes. So this will continue on for another year for sure, until we see the First Full Year Financials from BA. Today was a great indication of that. They played us with the SP yesterday, and sold everything to us for $.75 cents and today they dropped the SP to $.62 cents. They're fooling with everyone. This is not indicative of the company's worth. Right now for the next year, we don't even know what BA's EV is. So until we have that, we won't see shareholders coming into this stock. We can't even calculate shareholder value.
The other is the LTD. Until EM tells us what he's planning to do, with the remaining JB LTD in March. We won't have any light on that either. Although (IMHO) I think that, it's easy to guess here what will happen, from the turn of events today. IMO. They will discharge the 2 maturing 2021/2 LTJB debts. Then they have the cash left over from the Alstom shares to the tune of $700M US and maybe add another $ ???M from reserves to take care of 2024 JB debt. So the $1.5 B JB debt for 2025 will be the one to watch. As you can see by todays announcements, this is the course they've chosen. I would be surprised if they can refinance with conventional financing for the next 2 years. Not with this weak FCF. But the good part is that, that FCF figure will change annualy as the debt is being paid down, as BART elluded to today, and BA's FCF position gets stronger with the changes being implemented, and the Debt paydown. Yes slow debt paydown. But predictable. Slow but Safe as well. You can't keep kicking the can down the street if you want to create shareholder value. Having said that. They may kick, the 2025 JBD down the street, but it'll be at a much lower rate by then, because of the Bombardier ability to borrow, because of a better 3 year track record of financial responsibility from now till 2025.
For me today. I like BART. I think Martel is the right guy for the job. I think the company is focussed, and changing for the better, by implementing fiscal responsibility in their only asset in BA. The DRAMA is less. They finally are realizing what needs to be done. And they are forgetting pie in the sky. Like the CSeries.
For me. To play these day trades, and take on these Black Boxes, and Algo's daily, is not in the cards. What I'm doing is? Buy and hold with a low average and let it ride. Instead of a 4 year investement, it has become a 8 year investment. But it'll pay off. One day in the near future, these Market Makers will get tired of beating up on the day traders for peanuts, and start to take this baby for a ride, because they can't keep a good horse that wants to get out of the stall, and start racing, in it's stall for ever. The SP will need to be moved, and it'll be sooner than later. The Market will soon see the value in Bombardier, and they'll start to buy because the upside will be too good.
Cheers
PabloLafortune wrote: 859, It is much much cleaner yes. But not clean enough And not enough profitability considering the liabilities. Anyway I could go into further detail but I'd just be repeating what I posted in the past. The cocktail of debt, other liabilities, low EBITDA, dependency on new orders (this is my biggest concern ) and high interest expense is not a winning formula. Something has to give. Ps sold 80% of commons, still bag holding the prefs.