RE:Value $50Looks like Wall Street is doing what it does best, which is getting it wrong. The present stock valuations aren't even reasonable if : the virus just gives up, the economy comes roaring back, and inflation doesn't hit.
But of course the traders and trading companies will make money either way. And the ordinary people, and pension funds, will get screwed. That basically is late stage capitalism. Kind of the final orgy of money going from poor to rich. And in America , for some strange reason, the people, and especially a significant faction of the poor people, seem mostly ok with that.
The problems I see with the everything will be fine idea is that the virus isn't giving up, in fact it seems to be staging a pretty serious comeback. And lots of countries will be badly impacted for at least all of 2022, even if a few like the US, the UK, Europe someday, and even Canada by maybe sometime next year are mostly vaccinated, and that's assuming the vacine works. And everyone doesn't need revacination in a few months.
And some segments of all countries economies wont be roaring back for quite awhile. I live in Thailand and tourism makes up a big part of the GNP and my estimate is the very earliest they will open the country to Covid carrying tourists is the winter tourism season of 2022,almost 2 years from now. And that would only be if all Thais are vaccinated by then. Basically it might be never when countries can assume that on a plane full of travellers from where ever, no one has Covid.
My thinking is that all the roaring different countries economies will do will be directly the roar of newly printed gov money. I guess we will find out how that works. When things fell apart in 2008/9 , the last time Wall St was quite wrong, the Gov's actually didn't print that much, and nothing like what is coming. Europe was quite late to the printing, 2011 I think it was.
Wall St and others in America are really really good at bubbles. I think the ones now haven't been seen since 1620 Holland when a single tulip bulb was worth a house. I think the master of bubbles these days might be the Tesla boy. I think that Ford, GM , Toyota, and very especially the Chinese are going to be very soon ( the Chinese are already very big in electric cars and control all the battery chemicals and soon technology) going to eat all the electric car cake. So Tesla boy is going into Bitcoin. Perhaps a desperation move to try and make some money. And with stock manipulation his biggest talent ,by far, he probably will. His biggest asset now is his fame, and he goes to extraordinary measures to increase that.