RE:So still -500 FCF in 2021...Grosso Modo, this is what I guess the #s are for 2021. (500M) cashflow is probably not the worst case scenario by the way. //
#1 EBITDA 500M. #2 capex $300M #3 interest - $500M #4 other (MHI) $200M. So 500M negative cashflow.//
They can probably do better on EBITDA, capex (sell some R/E and?) and refinancing the debt.//
Where its tricky is the backlog. It dropped $1B in Q4 causing a $300M drop in customer deposits. Another $1B drop in 2021 and that's $300M negative cashflow. They seem to be assuming no drop in backlog?
Finally, maybe they can sell something else - Mexico operation? Learjet parts and service? Global wing division? - or get more money from Alstom?
Let's see what they SAY at the analyst meet up. For the DO part, we'll have to wait a bit longer. For 60-65 cents, its fair to say there's more upside than downside... as long as you have the patience of job.