yakattack wrote: PFS used $9,500 a tonne. Current LCE pricing is around that amount if we go off of latest updates. Hydroxide has a premium and I expect LCE price to move up over the next 2-3 years. For the sake of this example I'm going to use 11K for hydroxide pricing, since that is already in the range of where it's at.
Now, since you can also make more #lithium with less (hydroxide vs LCE), it comes in around 31K tonnes a year for hydroxide (if we use the 27K from PFS as a baseline).
With an operating cost of $3,300 and a CAPEX cost of 495M, we are looking at a current valuation of 1.5 Billion USD. This is up from 1.05 Billion USD PFS.
Now here is the interesting part. What if the lithium price stays as-is and doesn't budge ever again.... but CYP is able to get their OPEX costs down? Say from $3,300 to $2,800?
Then we are looking at a valuation of 1.7 Billion USD, which is roughly 70% higher than the PFS.
There is also a savings on the acid/capex costs, but it isn't make or break. If they got it down to 400M from the 495M originally planed, it only goes from 1.7B to 1.79B, but energy would need to be considered.
So what does this all mean? It means that:
At the CURRENT TIME.... CYP's value if producing battery grade hydroxide, with the same opex/capex costs from the PFS.... is 1.5 Billion USD or 2 Billion CAD.
What does this mean for the share price? If you look at LAC, Piedmont, AVZ, Bacanora, Ioneer, Frontier, Sayona.... they are all being valued between 50-80% on an EV/NPV basis. Let's use 50% only since it's conservative relative to 80%.
50% of the CURRENT value in CAD terms is around 1.1 Billion. Divide this by the new number of outstanding shares/warrants it's around 142M shares fully diluted.... let's round up again to make it safe.... 145M.
So that leaves us with 1.1 Billion divided by 145M shares... and that's $7.58 CAD..... AT THE TIME THIS IS POSTED.
Now.... if CYP is able to get the opex costs down to say $2,800 and the price of lithium moves up to $10-11K.... then hydroxide is in the $12-13K range..... let's use $12K to be safe.... and if capex costs come down to around 450M.... then:
CYP's value then is 2 Billion USD (give or take - again.... only using the same resources from the PFS... NOT the entire property).
That is 2.7 Billion CAD. At the conservative 50% of NPV relative to peer's who are 50-80%.... that's now a share price of $9.31 CAD.
If we are to be valued relative to Piedmont, LAC, Frontier, Sayona, etc... who are all 60%+ EV/NPV basis.... that is $11.17 a share.
We sit at $1.70.