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Century Lithium Corp V.LCE

Alternate Symbol(s):  CYDVF

Century Lithium Corp. is a Canada-based advanced stage lithium company, focused on developing its 100%-owned Clayton Valley Lithium Project in west-central Nevada, United States. The Company is engaged principally in the acquisition, exploration, and development of its mineral properties. The Company is in the pilot stage of testing on material from its lithium-bearing claystone deposit at its lithium extraction facility in Amargosa Valley, Nevada. It is focused on being a domestic producer of lithium for the electric vehicle and battery storage market. The Clayton Valley Lithium Project is located in Esmeralda County, in west-central Nevada, United States, immediately east of Albemarle’s Silver Peak mine.


TSXV:LCE - Post by User

Comment by yakattackon Feb 13, 2021 8:13pm
241 Views
Post# 32563364

RE:*Cypress Share Price - Some Math*

RE:*Cypress Share Price - Some Math*It should also be noted that some of these other companies being valued at 50-80% on a EV/NPV basis are not even 1/10th the size in terms of resources.


yakattack wrote:
PFS used $9,500 a tonne. Current LCE pricing is around that amount if we go off of latest updates. Hydroxide has a premium and I expect LCE price to move up over the next 2-3 years. For the sake of this example I'm going to use 11K for hydroxide pricing, since that is already in the range of where it's at. 
 
Now, since you can also make more #lithium with less (hydroxide vs LCE), it comes in around 31K tonnes a year for hydroxide (if we use the 27K from PFS as a baseline).
 
With an operating cost of $3,300 and a CAPEX cost of 495M, we are looking at a current valuation of 1.5 Billion USD. This is up from 1.05 Billion USD PFS.
 
Now here is the interesting part. What if the lithium price stays as-is and doesn't budge ever again.... but CYP is able to get their OPEX costs down? Say from $3,300 to $2,800?
 
Then we are looking at a valuation of 1.7 Billion USD, which is roughly 70% higher than the PFS.
 
There is also a savings on the acid/capex costs, but it isn't make or break. If they got it down to 400M from the 495M originally planed, it only goes from 1.7B to 1.79B, but energy would need to be considered.
 
So what does this all mean? It means that:
 
At the CURRENT TIME.... CYP's value if producing battery grade hydroxide, with the same opex/capex costs from the PFS.... is 1.5 Billion USD or 2 Billion CAD.
 
What does this mean for the share price? If you look at LAC, Piedmont, AVZ, Bacanora, Ioneer, Frontier, Sayona.... they are all being valued between 50-80% on an EV/NPV basis. Let's use 50% only since it's conservative relative to 80%.
 
50% of the CURRENT value in CAD terms is around 1.1 Billion. Divide this by the new number of outstanding shares/warrants it's around 142M shares fully diluted.... let's round up again to make it safe.... 145M.
 
So that leaves us with 1.1 Billion divided by 145M shares... and that's $7.58 CAD..... AT THE TIME THIS IS POSTED.
 
Now.... if CYP is able to get the opex costs down to say $2,800 and the price of lithium moves up to $10-11K.... then hydroxide is in the $12-13K range..... let's use $12K to be safe.... and if capex costs come down to around 450M.... then:
 
CYP's value then is 2 Billion USD (give or take - again.... only using the same resources from the PFS... NOT the entire property).
 
That is 2.7 Billion CAD. At the conservative 50% of NPV relative to peer's who are 50-80%.... that's now a share price of $9.31 CAD.
 
If we are to be valued relative to Piedmont, LAC, Frontier, Sayona, etc... who are all 60%+ EV/NPV basis.... that is $11.17 a share.
 
We sit at $1.70.
 
 
 
 


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