Two or three of a hundred thoughts out loud Darkness breeds wild speculation. This would explain Night Terrors. Everything seems less frightening in the light of day, after the sun has risen and is shining brightly. Right now, we're all in the dark.
One thing we all agree on, which is obvious, is that either Prabhu left of his own accord, or he was shown the door. It has to be one of the two, the former possibility being far preferable, although it isn't without negative implications.
If that's the case, let's consider just a couple of his possible motivations.
He may simply have decided to retire. By my calculations, given his transactions to date, and given his remaining stock options, Prabhu walks with between 8 and 9 million after-tax at today's stock price, and that's assuming he had accumulated no savings prior to joining Xebec. There are probably lots of people out there who could retire quite comfortably with eight million.
That was a joke. Anyway, early retirement is a real possibility. Why not? In a way, perhaps this was foreshadowed by his sale of all his shares, to leave him with nothing but 1,308,193 options, at virtually no cost. I will keep an eye on what he does with those. It may be telling of his motivation for leaving, be it harmonious or otherwise. Again the terse release announcing his departure may be nothing more than an angered response to a sudden announcement of his intention to walk, which in turn may have been an angered response to Van Driel's promotion. Human nature has a hand in everything.
Another possible reason Prabhu left could be that he's been offered a better opportunity elsewhere, or has been offered what he sees as a "higher position" at a competitor. Maybe he saw the writing on the wall, and was further incentivized by Marinus Van Driel's new role superseding his own. Certainly, Mr. Van Driel has a far greater equity stake. I see he holds 4,443, 735 shares of SDI Technology, to be exchanged for Xebec shares.
This wouldn't be an optimal outcome. If Prabhu is going to a competitor, he takes with him a raft of state secrets. I doubt it, but it isn't impossible.
These are just 2 of any number of reasons Prabhu might have left Xebec voluntarily. The worst-case scenario that I can imagine is that instead, he was terminated for cause, and the worst cause that I can imagine would have been a sudden one. One that would have been a complete surprise and a shock to upper management, rather than something like a quarterly revenue shortfall or a cost overrun that management would have long seen coming.
The worst possible screw-up of this sort that I could imagine is that Prabhu somehow derailed the finalization of either the Inmatec acquisition or the as-yet-unannounced LOI. Either of these would be a big hit. Both figure prominently in analysts' revenue forecasts, and certainly, as COO, Prabhu would have played a major role in discussions.
Don't shoot the messenger, I'm just wondering out loud. Part of due diligence is sometimes playing the role of devil's advocate.
This is the very first time I can think of that I can point a finger at Xebec management and justifiably accuse them of being less than candid with shareholders. I don't like it.
I suppose we should all take at least some comfort in Td's assessment of this development as a "minor negative". They surely know more about it than we do.
I'll be watching this closely. Many of my friends have lots of Xebec. I don't, but they do, and I won't hesitate to advise them to take action if I see signs of major deterioration. So far I haven't. The stock took this news remarkably well on Friday. I will see it as miraculous if it holds $9.52.