RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:No Chance to See Q1Let me add a few things:
There are so many companies in the oil and gas space that are not valued in the way they should - this includes both ARX and VII. But the sad story is: Just because you and I think VII is much more worth than the current stock price, it doesn't matter as long as industry sentiment is not in favor of this sector and "the market" is not willing to invest more. For instance: I personally cannot understand why Tesla is valued unrealistically high with expectations they might never fulfill, while the oil and gas sector is valued as if oil and gas demand will drop to zero in the next 5 years.
Or in other words you have to find someone that is willing to pay the price you have in mind.
I learned this the hard way with Painted Pony - I had to sell my shares at depressing values to a much bigger company. They just need a little bit of time until gas prices improve and the debt levels will not be a problem. When the CNQ offer arrived, I was arguing that the inner value of this company was so much higher and I was hoping for a White Knight to raise the offer. The truth is: A White Knight never showed up and I was forced to sell my shares for depressing low price. I didn't buy CNQ with my proceeds from the sale, because I didn't want to exchange a high risk/reward company with a hugh company with much lower torque.
I think you should overcome the amount of shares argument. There are couple of people in this forum that always mention the number of shares is a problem. I don't think so. The important factors are markect cap and debt levels -> added up to Enterprise Value. It doesn't matter how many shares exist as long as a company is not issuing shares without a purpose. Arc could make a reverse stock split of 5:1 and would end up with 150 Million shares, but would this make any difference?
I hope that explains a little bit, why I think in the current environment it is a deal I personally can live with and that I was fearing a much worse outcome.
I think the merged company will be a good option to invest in the sector. I think it has enough torque to provide growth, has a good balance sheet and has a good product diversification. I expect that the company will do well compared to other comapnies in this space. I still own stocks from other companies that offer a higher risk/reward profile (e.g. BIR)