RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:EXPERTS COMMENTSThe way I see it, 2021 will be another tough year.
2022 looks very promissing.
From my spreadsheet:
Year ----- Operating CF ----- Capex
2010 ------ $200 ------------ $261
2011 ------ $300 ------------ $380
2012 ------ $305 ------------- $400
2013 ------ $420 ------------- $585
2014 ------ $640 ------------- $690
2015 ------ $550 ------------- $600
2016 ------ $485 ------------- $475
2017 ------ $555 ------------- $540
2018 ------ $470 ------------- $230
2019 ------ $320 ------------- $205
2020E ---- $190 ------------- $235
2021E ---- $325 ------------- $330 Incl. $35m aquisition
2022E ---- $530 -------------- $300
I assume from what D. Gee said in the interview, that by 2022, production will be over 100k boe/d and optimized for Peyto's producting facilities.
To have production at 100k plus a 2% growth would required around $300m in Capex.
Would Peyto's BoD really use most of this Net Free CF($230m) to reduce debt or will they repeat history and increase dividends and keep levarage at these unconfortable levels?
Answer in two years, but my guess is they will repeat the same mistake.