RE:RE:RE:Segments of Bbd with big growth potentialmartin,here is how (i think) the situation is
bbd owe right now about 9.5 billion (after paying the 750 facilty optained last aug )
bbd has access to 1.8 billion but forget about this amount will not be used to pay debt
bbd got or will get total of about 3.6 billion out of which 0.6 billion are invested in Alstom shares that bbd can sell at profit or loss in or after may 2021,
so forget about 0.6 billion for now
o bbd will have access to 3 billion dollars
in 2021 bbd has to pay interest on lall ong term debt of about 650-750 million + bbd has an expiring long term debt of 1.483 = bbd must pay about 2.133 billion in 2021
bbd will end 2021 with 3.0 billion - 2.133 billion + 0.6 billion (if no lose or gain in Alstom shs) =1.467 billion add to that any profit from BA (estimated at 100 million = 1.567 billion
in 2022, bbd have to pay a long term debt of 1.700 billion + interest on remaing approx 8 billion
i.e in 2022 bbd must pay 1.7 b + approx 0.560 b = approx 2.26 b
bbd has 1.567b must pay 2.26 b = there is a problem here
so bbd must borrow (probably from same guys who lend them 1 billion back in aug 2020
so bbd will borrow 1 billion at 3.6%
then bbd will have 1.567 b + 1 billion new facility + any prpfit from ba (estimated at 400 million
so 1.567 + 1.0 +0.40 = 2.96 b out ofwhich bbd will pay 2.26
bbd will end 2022 with 2.96 - 2.26 = 0.7 billion
come 2023
bbd owe 7.3 billin long term debt, pay about 450 million of interest
in 2023 bbd has an expiring long term debt of 1.250 billion + interest of 0.450 billion = 1.7 billion
bbd has 0.7 billion bbd must borrow again 1 billion at low rate 3.6% from same place
so bbd may end 2023 with LTD of 8 billion but will be paying about 400 million only of interest wich is manageable by BA
but bbd will ne making much more money in 2023 as every G 7500 will bring profit, new maintenace centers in Autralia and singapore or florida will be open....
correct me if you see a mis calculation here
but this the only way i can see bbd coming out of the dark tunnel
nowbbd management may have different approach to get bbd out, but the only way i see it is to keep kicking the can down the road and decrease intreset paid on long term debt to under 400 million per year
after that bbd can start really pay the long term debt slowly without borrowing
please correct me if needed
thanks