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Spectral Medical Inc T.EDT

Alternate Symbol(s):  EDTXF

Spectral Medical Inc. is a Canada-based late-stage theragnostic company advancing therapeutic options for sepsis and septic shock. The Company develops and commercializes a treatment for septic shock utilizing its Endotoxin Activity Assay (EAA) diagnostic and the Toraymyxin therapeutic (PMX). PMX is a therapeutic hemoperfusion device that removes endotoxin, which can cause sepsis, from the bloodstream and is guided by the Company’s EAA. PMX is approved for therapeutic use in Japan and Europe and has been used safely and effectively on more than 340,000 patients to date. It has pioneered the development of biochemical markers for the clinical syndrome known as septic shock. It is continuing its legacy business of manufacturing and selling certain proprietary reagents. It develops, produces and markets recombinant proteins, antibodies and calibrators. These materials are sold for use in research and development, as well as in products manufactured by other diagnostic companies.


TSX:EDT - Post by User

Comment by mercedesmanon Feb 25, 2021 3:09pm
139 Views
Post# 32660352

RE:RE:Low Volume + High Share Control

RE:RE:Low Volume + High Share Control
Domino55 wrote: = That

PMX is currently valued at Free.

this will soon change.


I would argue that it's basically ALL for free (for now):

PMX

PMX 10X EBITDA on PMX/EAA  from Investor presentation
based on 25% market penetration (only)
10X 123M USD EBITDA (from Presentation) = 1,230M USD (EBITDA multiple, highly conservative for FDA approved, high margin, medical devices)
divided by 250M shares (approx)
= $ 4.92 /sh USD
=$ 6.20 CAD

Dialco

$ 2B (based on NXStage and Outset buyout and IPO valuations respectively)
X 40% for NA rights only (Infomed RoW)
= $ 800M
divided by 250M shares (approx)
= $ 3.20/sh  USD
=$ 4.00 CAD

Other (valuation factors with likely zero value assigned so far)
  • Worldwide rights to HP on Dialco pumps
  • EAA rights outside NA (Baxter only NA)
  • SAMI (the non HHD CRRT) - portable, innovative, increased demand of late
  • Covid therapeutic potential PMX (not a treatment for Covid, but a treatment for Sepsis that is currently experieincing increased need DUE TO Covid - ie. secondary infections, endotoxemia, AKI, etc.)
  • high growth rate of Sepis worldwide (in general)
  • high anticipated growth rate of HHD (also accelerated by pandemic, Gov't mandated, better outcomes, cheaper, etc.)
  • competitive advantages to DIMI (see previous post)
  • 2021 market hype/Nasdaq premium (valuations are at extremes)
  • Toray new and improved filters (Cytokine absorptions, higher capcity, etc.)

So if, for example, you thought 

 PMX had 50/50 approval/non-approval odds (confirmatory Phase 3b Trial, Open label 2:1)

and Dialco had 75/25  FDA approval/non-approval odds (note SAMI already there, DIMI for hosp. use, just waiting on Home use)

...then a reasonable valuation today, might be calculated as:

$ 6.20 x 50/100 + $ 4.00 x 75/100 = $ 6.10

Now discount it another 50% (PV, time value of money, or just for the hell of it)

= $ 3.00 "fair price" today for the whole kit.

AIMHO, DYODD
IIITYWTMWYBMAB

MM







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