RE:RE:Low Volume + High Share ControlDomino55 wrote: = That
PMX is currently valued at Free.
this will soon change.
I would argue that it's basically
ALL for free (for now):
PMX PMX 10X EBITDA on PMX/EAA from Investor presentation
based on 25% market penetration (only)
10X 123M USD EBITDA (from Presentation) = 1,230M USD (EBITDA multiple, highly conservative for FDA approved, high margin, medical devices)
divided by 250M shares (approx)
= $ 4.92 /sh USD
=$ 6.20 CAD
Dialco $ 2B (based on NXStage and Outset buyout and IPO valuations respectively)
X 40% for NA rights only (Infomed RoW)
= $ 800M
divided by 250M shares (approx)
= $ 3.20/sh USD
=$ 4.00 CAD
Other (valuation factors with likely zero value assigned so far)
- Worldwide rights to HP on Dialco pumps
- EAA rights outside NA (Baxter only NA)
- SAMI (the non HHD CRRT) - portable, innovative, increased demand of late
- Covid therapeutic potential PMX (not a treatment for Covid, but a treatment for Sepsis that is currently experieincing increased need DUE TO Covid - ie. secondary infections, endotoxemia, AKI, etc.)
- high growth rate of Sepis worldwide (in general)
- high anticipated growth rate of HHD (also accelerated by pandemic, Gov't mandated, better outcomes, cheaper, etc.)
- competitive advantages to DIMI (see previous post)
- 2021 market hype/Nasdaq premium (valuations are at extremes)
- Toray new and improved filters (Cytokine absorptions, higher capcity, etc.)
So if, for example, you thought
PMX had 50/50 approval/non-approval odds (confirmatory Phase 3b Trial, Open label 2:1)
and Dialco had 75/25 FDA approval/non-approval odds (note SAMI already there, DIMI for hosp. use, just waiting on Home use)
...then a reasonable valuation
today, might be calculated as:
$ 6.20 x 50/100 + $ 4.00 x 75/100 = $ 6.10
Now discount it another 50% (PV, time value of money, or just for the hell of it)
= $ 3.00 "fair price" today for the whole kit.
AIMHO, DYODD
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