PabloLafortune wrote: If you go back to 2015 year end ie before Heartland and before the Williams' acquisition (but just after the Danish terminals acquisition), the share price was ~$22 and you can see that the debt (LTD+working capital deficit) was 4.9B. As of 2020, that # is 6.7B. What did we receive for that $1.8B in the interim 5 year period? A lot IMO. Company needs to do a much better job communicating this.
#1 - they've invested not insignificant growth capital in oil sands to increase capacity and cashflow (the company are the ones best placed to share the details and make the case with investors).
#2 - they've invested in conventional oil pipelines and made an acquisition which should lead to higher cashflow esp. that this part of the business did get impacted by the pandemic. Again, IPL presentation should emphasize this with actual historical and projected #s for 2021.
#3 - Bulk storage - post divestiture, they hold 19M barrels capacity vs the 27M they held at the end of 2015. Again, clarity for investors as to the cashflow of this segment going forward.
#4 - NGL processing - appears to be 2X larger in 2020 than it was in 2015 but since there has been some divestitures with an early 2021 closing...in particular, we need to see what EBITDA will be lost and gained from the asset swap.
#5 - Heartland - ...(by the way, its not a pure asset. they did sell (leaseback?) part of it as a financing means IIRC).
Since the 2016? Williams' acquisition was $1.1B IIRC, the gist is that ex Heartland we are basically where we were at year end 2015.
I'm watching this one closely to see what the BoD will do...I was put into this in 2003 and for the most part dripped the dividend thus ended up with quite a few shares (which was a mess when they switched from a trust and had to file an election with CRA). I really didn't look at it until they inexplicably made the decision to invest in Heartland which was a quadruple down from the Williams' acquisition. This was a very solid cashflow prior to based on take or pay contracts with investment grade customers. Whereas Heartland was not only a huge capex but there was no take or pay - they basically changed the business model overnight, I'm sure most investors didn't understand this...until the 2/3 dividend cut of course. I have some PPL as well and you could see the totally different approach on their own (since mothballed) project....All in all was a terrible decision for investors.
Also, I don't really understand what Brookfield is doing. Clearly they could have offered 50% premium from day 1 ie $20 a share, take it over, and then deal with (or just deal) Heartland. Be that as it may, I am very appreciative of the impact they've had on the market value of my shares and for the wake up call to management and the Board of Directors.
Finally, I also don't understand why PPL doesn't make a bid. Their own core business isn't that good (they overpaid for some assets IMO) and here they have an opportunity to buy IPL for less than FMV (IMO of course - wtf do I know).
I feel like investors are caught between a rock (IPL BoD) and a hard place (Brookfield) right now. Not ideal but better than being only under a rock only with no other option.
GLTA
Albatross wrote: Well said and well reasoned there Pablo. Glad to see people on here with some look ahead capability. People will not give away such promising gains that are only a year away even if Brookfield offer jumps to $20 in my opinion. I sure will not. I'm looking forward to making a big purchase of stock around this $18 mark to put my money where my mouth is.