rfguysd wrote: Have you wondered why there a decrease in
utility ebitda for 2020 4
th Qtr when compared to 2019? It is a little odd ..don’t you think?
| 2019 Utility | | 2020 Utility | | Decrease |
| ebitda | | ebitda | | |
| | | | | |
| 259M | | 244M | | -5.80% |
1) What is the growth rate in residential subscribers?
| Met Area | | 2019 | 2020 | Increase |
| | | Subscribers | Subscribers | |
| | | | | |
| Virginia | | 535,000 | 541,000 | 1.12% |
| Maryland | | 493,000 | 502,000 | 1.83% |
| Washington | 164,000 | 166,000 | 1.22% |
| Enstar | | 147,000 | 149,000 | 1.36% |
| Semco | | 307,000 | 313,000 | 1.95% |
| | | | | |
| Total | | 1,646,000 | 1,671,000 | 1.52% |
2)The ROE for the Utility has been increasing . From 8% ROE in 2020 (numbers from Qtr) to 9.5% in 2021. This is a 1.5% increase in ROE. So adding the ROE increase in 2020 with the subscriber increase we should see a 3.0% in revenue for the Utility.
3) Weather. Let me table the heating-days for only one of the five Met areas. I will use Washington DC, the airport to calculate the heating-days for 2019 and 2020 4
th Qtr. The temperature is obtained from this site.
www.degreedays.net
| Week | Heating -degree days | Week | Heating -degree days |
| 10/3/2020 | 34 | 10/5/2019 | 17 |
| 10/10/2020 | 24 | 10/12/2019 | 42 |
| 10/17/2020 | 27 | 10/19/2019 | 51 |
| 10/24/2020 | 52 | 10/26/2019 | 30 |
| 10/31/2020 | 96 | 11/2/2019 | 114 |
| 11/7/2020 | 42 | 11/9/2019 | 161 |
| 11/14/2020 | 110 | 11/16/2019 | 133 |
| 11/21/2020 | 82 | 11/23/2019 | 129 |
| 11/28/2020 | 117 | 11/30/2019 | 154 |
| 12/5/2020 | 169 | 12/7/2019 | 165 |
| 12/12/2020 | 169 | 12/14/2019 | 191 |
| 12/19/2020 | 166 | 12/21/2019 | 178 |
| 12/26/2020 | 185 | 12/28/2019 | 117 |
| | | | |
| | 1273 | | 1482 |
The change in heating days for 2020 4
th Qtr is
-14.1% less than the heating days in 2019.
4)Even though, there has been subscriber growth , growth in ROE … the weather affected ebitda more decreasing the overall utility ebitda by 5%
.
GLTA
RFguy
PS. Good news coming …. Due the polar Vertex of 2021, the heating-days for 1stQtr 2021 is on track for an increase of
24%. This would positively increase 2021 Utility ebitda as compare to 1
st Qtr 2020.
| 1/2/2021 | 172 | 1/4/2020 | 163 |
| 1/9/2021 | 176 | 1/11/2020 | 107 |
| 1/16/2021 | 170 | 1/18/2020 | 213 |
| 1/23/2021 | 218 | 1/25/2020 | 160 |
| 1/30/2021 | 205 | 2/1/2020 | 122 |
| 2/6/2021 | 202 | 2/8/2020 | 146 |
| 2/13/2021 | 221 | 2/15/2020 | 172 |
| 2/20/2021 | 175 | 2/22/2020 | 145 |
| | | | |
| | 1539 | | 1228 |