RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Canaccord ups Price Target to $7 We've spoken how the sell side research model is broken so many of the best analysts have left over the last decade. There are still some left that actually look to find good ideas. My experience is not many investors actually care about the price targets and definitely not the actual recommendation for this reason -it is usually lagging and often wrong. Studies have shown that for years. I would bet most in these scoring systems that track the value of their B/S/H call and targets are clustered around 50%.
What investors do value is thoughtful, in-depth and insightful research, not recommendations. Someone who understands the big industry and market drivers and if the company has a strategy to maximize their chance to succeed, Abrahams and Ed Nash seem to have a decent industry insight and because of that many investors would take a meeting or listen to them on the facts. I doubt anyone takes them at 100% since they both had hit or miss views.
To me their value is in explaining difficult science and placing it in an industry context, giving a rough idea how the economics may work out for the company and having a high level of credibility so if you talk positively about a company investors at least take notice and do their own DD on it. It really helps if your firm is larger and especially if it's a known healthcare "go-to" firm. So it is still worth them trying to move up that chain and seek research coverage from the likes of Cantor Fitzgerald, Leerink, Stifel, Piper Jeffrey, Raymond James for mid size to large firms, and eventually shoot for JPMorgan, Merrill, Credit Suisse, Barclays, Goldman. All those just bring a lot more eyes to it.
Of course well executed research on the pipeline will make it a lot easier. That is a must.
scarlet1967 wrote:
5 of 10 from preclinical yes absolutely, but as we have seen these journalist are not committing to any decent coverage specially in case of THTX until later on when there are convincing information available(after the fact) well I rather do my own DD as it is NO brainer when the company has made decent progress to come out and ascribe a value, I posted the below article earlier and as per the article or many similar articles probability of success is about phase1, 12%, phase2, 20% and phase3, 56% yes I get it is generally speaking but the point is for analysts to come out later during process and copy and paste articles like these means their efforts have absolutely no value. Add to that these lazy journalists keep making obvious simple mathematical mistakes and keep putting contradicting information within their reports as we saw for Abraham for a long time not realizing the patent extension for Egrifta and Nash producing a bogus report last time round giving PT 3 times his expected financing price within same year. You want to follow/believe them good luck because you will need it. A skillful analyst with whatever ranking would tell their clients what they don’t know not what they already know.
Nash
Ranked #1,978 out of 7,342 Analysts on Tip Ranks, 45 percent success rate
Abraham
Ranked #1,289 out of 7,342 Analysts on Tip Ranks, 48 percent success rate
How to calculate the value of drugs and biotech companies:
https://www.baybridgebio.com/drug_valuation.html
qwerty22 wrote: What portfolio? 5 out of ten in biotech is pretty strong.
scarlet1967 wrote: Both Nash and Abraham have a success rate below 5 of max 10, tossing the coin has better odds.
They are biased as Abraham stayed put for a while as a curtesy thanks to being awarded the closing of the converts and now due to his new circumstances he can't cover the company and as per Nash he put a $12 price target on the company for a good while hoping to push the SP higher so he could be awarded a financing! It is so stupidly obvious that they are bunch of crooks and anyone following them must be mentally compromised, relying on them to ascribe a fair valuation is silly so common Theratechnologies if you read this it's about time to take your own actions rather than relying on others.