RE:Some ObservationsNice to see the Dec 2020 financials today, including the dramatic increase in TTV and revenue. I think it's safe to say BNXA has a current annual run rate of $20-$25 million.
Interestingly, if BNXA traded at the same valuation of VYGR it would be ~$56.40/share.
I hate to make that kind of comarison, though, since VYGR is overvalued by many multiples.
I have an accounting background, so s few cautionary notes too:
1) While the cost of sales have been decreasing as a percentage of revenue, the salaries and G&A expenses have been increasing in lock step. Loss from operations is only a little less in 2020 than in 2019. It will be interesting to see if there's a meaningful change in the next quarter, when we are expecting even higher revenues.
2) The listing expenses were offset by a gain on value of inventory + foreign exchange. While these are legal accounting measures, investments and foreign exchange can work against a company, too, and is qualitatively different than actual revenues.
3) The cash flow statement also indicates they are not out of the woods yet, despite revenue increasing by a huge percentage. While part of this can be attributed to the listing expense, factoring that out cash flows were still minus $2.5 million vs. minus $1.0 million in 2019. This was largely offset by $2.5 million in loans during the quarter.
I'm a BNXA investor and plan to hold long term. I comfortable with placing a fair value on the shares at 10x revenues, which I know is less than competitors, but I'm conservative. That would put the market cap at ~$200-250 million. With a fully diluted float of 45 million, that suggests a fair value of between $4.40 and $5.60 per share.
That is my two cents. I agree that we COULD see a much higher share price, since many investors in the current environment won't be inclined to look at the numbers so critically. I wouldn't be surprised to see a share price of $10.00/share this year, perhaps higher.
I only offer my numbers as a check on overexuberance. Feel free to plug your own numbers in.
GLTA
Thanks for the above post BCDUDE,
To solidify my comfort zone, I ran my own numbers with following variables:
2.0 % margin
50 % jump mo over mo for February 2021 just like BIGG
10% jump mo over mo for balance of year
Using 12 months out forward sales at 4x I get $5.35 stock price.
Now, one can argue all day about variables. One can argue about bit coin price, competition, regulatory framework, growth, adoption rates, bla bla bla
Folks are comfortable saying $10.00 bucks. I get it now. BNXA is exploding on the growth side. January 2021 ttv of 53mm would be ~ 227mm for month of January 2022 going with mo over mo of 50% for Feb 2021 and 10% mo over mo for next 11 months.
Ten bucks is 4 x current price. Nice risk/reward in my view.
Wow!
Management not so great at floating the story so shares bought now are cheap IMO.