RE:RE:RE:Copper tanking 3.8525 -0.2895 down -6.99%
Research from UK bank PEEL HUNT, a UK broker, , published March 1. $12,000/Tonne = $5.44/lb "A structural shift higher for copper prices A review of historic pricing cycles suggests that the present upcycle has only just started. We expect a peak in early 2023E at a price a little over US$12,000/t, which should underpin strong cash generation from our copper coverage. The upcoming copper price peak should be around US$12,000/t. We believe the present cycle will be an extended one, meaning we expect the peak-to-peak gap to be around 12-13 years, up from the usual 7-8 years. Excluding supercycle price moves, the typical cycle sees each peak c.20% higher than the last, implying a price a little over $12,000/t given the prior peak of $10,200 in early 2011. Any pullback should be well supported around US$6,000/t. A typical cycle sees troughs around 40% higher than prior lows. Already we have seen price support above the trough seen in early 2016. Taken together we believe this suggests the low following the coming peak could well bottom out around US$6,000/t. Assuming a cyclical peak in early 2023E, then a typical cycle would see a trough about three years later, ie not until early 2026E. This to us suggests an extended period of elevated copper prices. Raising our copper price forecasts an average of 27% through 2023E. Our cycle review drives copper price forecast increases of 12%/25%/45% for 2021/22/23E."