RE:ExxonMobil to drill Koebi-1 in 30 days, Whiptail in May – He Best guess is that Tullow is now in a position to raise equity or sell their stake for something that will appease their shareholders. Either way I think be best way forward as far as our Guyana block is to drill two wells in the eastern most part. If memory serves this could yield roughly 800 million - 1.5 billion barrels and has the best chance of success. The good news is both Total and Tullow are privy to way more geological information due to their various wells drilled in the Guyana-Suriname basin. I think Namibia could be interesting but we'll have to wait on others and any chance of success clearly isn't priced in.
I think $3 - 4 a barrel in ground is appropriate given current prices so I'd expect $1 per share once drilling plans are announced.
if they hit: 1 billion barrels plus de-risking @15% is 150,000,000 barrels @$3 = $450,000,000 / 180,00,000 shares
$2.50 usd a share