FEI -EdmontonSpot - Shipping+Handling costs=profitsFEI contract prices have been very good these last few months! Better than last yr 1st/qtr.
There has been little mention of the FAR EAST pricing for propane these last few months. What does this mean to the bottom line for ALA? To understand this you need to look at how you can get propane from Edmonton to China There are 3 main sets of costs to transport propane from Edmonton to Asia. Lets attempt to address these 3 costs (rail, port handling,sea) and calculate the Net “profit” .
It should be noted that ALA has a logistics/purchasing/trading team that would be constantly updating/negotiating these costs and opportunities.
My feeling is Ferndale volumes are going to go up and better usage of rail will evolve due to Ferndale. The savings of 30M (ALA claims) is definitely achievable (and I think more).
| Constants | | | Units | | | | | | | barrel | | 42 | gals | | tonne | | 12.7 | barrels | | throughput/day | | 54000 | barrels/day | | | | | | | Size of ship | | 600,000 | barrels | | GT of tanker | | 50000 | tonnes | | DWT of tanker | | 65000 | tonnes | | | | | | | | | | | | storage cost | | 0.5 | usd/bbl/mon | | railcar unloading | | 1.7 | usd /t | | Leased Rail cars | | 1700 | c3/c4 | | rail distance | | 1500 | km | | rail cost | | 0.01375 | usd/tonne/km | | lease car cost | | 600 | usd/car/mon | | Car capacity | | 33700 | gals/car | | Load Weight | | 120 | tonnes | | LT weight | | 45.7 | tonnes | | | | | | | | | | | | railcars for 54k bbls/day | | 68 | cars | | | | | | | Seafaring Tariffs | | | | | Port Tariffs | | | | | harbour | | 4500 | .07/dwt | | wharfage | | 85000 | 1.7/tonne | | berthing | | 3800 | 40/hr | | anchorage | | | | | escort in | | 10000 | 10000/job | | escort out | | 10000 | 10000/job | | tugboat in | 3 | 30000 | 10000/job | | tugboat out | 2 | 20000 | 10000/job | | | | | | | Total Port Costs(from) | | 163300 | From Port | | Total Port Costs (to) | | 163300 | To Port | | | | | | | LPG tanker rate | | 103,000 | usd/day | | in port | | 2 | day | | at sea | | 12 | day | | out Port | | 2 | day | | | | | | | LPG Tanker cost | | $ 1,648,000.00 | | | | | | | | Total Seafaring Tariff | | $3.291 | usd/bbls | | | | | | | | | | | | Rail Tariffs | | | | | | | | | | Transport cost to PR | | $ 168,300.00 | usd /68 car load | | Transport cost to FT | | $ 64,094.25 | usd/68 car unload | | | | | | | Rail Transport(to/from) | | $ 4.30 | usd/bbls | | | | | | | Rail Lease cost | | $ 12,240,000.00 | 1700 cars for 12 months | | # barrels /yr at 54k/day | | 19710000 | bbls/ year | | | | | | | Lease cost /barrel | | $ 0.62 | usd /bbls | | | | | | | | | | | | Ridley/Ferndale Handling | | | | | | | | | | unloading | | 0.254243323 | usd/bbl | | refrigeration | | 0.18 | usd/bbl | | refrig storage | | 0.465 | usd/bbl | | ship loading | | 0.127121662 | usd/bbl | | Port operation(capital over 10yr) | | 2.536783359 | usd/bbl | | | | | | | Total cost Ridley/Fendale | | $3.56 | usd/bbls | | | | | | | | | | | | FEI Contract | | $538 | usd/tonne | | Edmonton Spot Price | | $272 | usd/tonne | | | | | | | FEI Contract /bbls | | $42.36220472 | usd/barrel | | Edmonton Spot Price/bbls | | $21.41732283 | usd/barrel | | Shipping+Handling | | $11.78 | usd/barrel | | Profit | | $ 9.17 | usd/barrel | | | | | |
GLTA
RFguy