RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:News sum aryThere is an element of fairy dust economics here that isn't in line with the resilient, defensive nature 'midstream & infrastructure' usually implies. I think the project would be $25M/y ebitda for $230M capex if you discount all LCFS credits to $0, which is overly harsh, but shows how much of the spectrum of economics is made up by government 'support' that can reverse quickly. I don't want to be TSLA selling zero emission credits to turn a profit, but also that is the game being played right now and if the government is offering it, you've got to do your job and consider it.
I'm surprised that no one else bid the price up of PGR if economics on PGR + renewable diesel are this attractive. This should be a great year for PGR given crack spreads above $50/b for a while given the outages in Texas. That they ran for a full quarter above nameplate @ 50% diesel yield is pretty incredible. 2021, at above $50/b crack and 12M bbl/d runs, will require a payout to HSE/CVE at this rate.
Other reasons to be optimistic about 2021:
- Full year of Pipestone running near capacity
- Improved AECO driving throughput at legacy gas plants
- Return to DCF growth through lower lease costs and interest costs [if Pioneer closes]
That'd put them up to their initial 2020 guidance of $200M and full year DCF of around $60M in 2021.
I don't see them issuing common equity at this price yet, but that's always a risk. If prices recover to 1.30-1.40 I can see that being a material risk, but I, like probably many people here, would be holding far fewer shares if we reach that distanct landmark.