RE:RE:You Guys Have More Nerve Than Me! As far as I am concern, the risk is highly worthwhile.
My understanding is that the fact that AC demonstrates little enthusiasm towards completing the transaction is purely strategic. By doing so, AC forces the EU-Regulator to take into account that, even though Transat is available, no other stakeholder comes-up with an offer...
Such demonstration might lighten/limit the restrictions to be imposed on some lines by the EU-Regulator... More so, the Regulator is in no position to block the transaction.
My prediction is that AC will jump on its prey as soon as the Regulator's decision comes through.
In addition to the immediate jump to 8,50$ by converting to AC shares, the timing (vaccination...) will be perfect to rise the AC share value a lot higher: from the current 5,85$ to the equivalent of 9,45$ - an easy 60% jump for a 10% immediate rise of AC- share to 30 to 33$.
Being heavily positioned on both sides of the transaction, my understanding is that crashlanding can't happen. The worst case scenario is a global parachute effect if ever AC backs off. Still, to me the highly probable scenario is the AC-Faulcon jumping on its prey, the TRZ-Pigeon and immediately reaching much higher altitudes...