Aleafia Health Inc ALEAF

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Looking forward to Q4 in 9 days March 25 !! :) $$$$

[Toweringmars]

Sorry that napkin math was based off Q3. Need to factor in paying the debs and the last raise. Debs minus cash to pay em pretty much balance themselves out. Then carry the 1, LOL but essentially all goodwill and 100% of those two items from note 6 and we'd have 177.382 million in shareholder equity. Which works out to 0.537 a share. That's in equity alone. Factor in a 6x multiple on earnings and we're laughing.

Toweringmars wrote:

Good posts fellers,
I wouldnt be against it. Might as well wipe out the goodwill and come out squeaky in 2021. Its been a long December and theres reason to believe, that maybe this year will be better than the last.

Goodwill of 188.79m on the books we could cook off. And frankly I wouldnt mind depreciating some of those intangibles as well. Some of them are warranted, but  the Serruya license and Emblem brands seem a tad high no?

As it stands we have 454,737 in shareholder equity and 83,959 in liabilities. Even if we wiped out ALL of the goodwill we'd be looking at 181.988M in shareholders equity. 

If we were to wipe out the entierty of the intangibles mentiond (Serruy and Emb Brands) we'd have 154.628M... And thats if they wipe it out entierly which isnt necessary, I'd say maybe a 25% write down.

Thats still massive shareholder equity and then we come out sittin' pretty with some squeaky books.

Not a terrible idea.

 

Obserrverr wrote: Enjoyed the read.
 

 

I'd go all in for Q4 if I were Aleafia and write down all goodwill in 2020. Throw the kitchen sink at it too. Set the stage for 2021 with a clean slate, and a potential M&A. ACB, Hexo and Weed all did it last year. 

There is a lot to be said for a clean balance sheet.

 

sincitywizard wrote: I too am looking forward to Q4 results, but I don't have grand expectations of a blowout quarter that will move the share price drastically up. I'm just hoping that management does not disappoint due to high expectations.

As Benic has previously alluded to, Aleafia will probably have the best top line results that they have ever had.  However, if that does not meet up to expectations, share price will fall. So lets not get ahead of ourselves with high expectations.  Earnings are what matters. 

There are many variables that affect imports/exports/certification. What quarter sales ultimately get accounted for, will depend on variables that change daily.  While I expect record revenue, I also think that SG&A expenses and employee compensation will be high and eat into those revenues. So I don't expect much in the way of actual positive earnings.

Stuff happens on Tuesday that affects what was said on Monday.  So the story changes on Wednesday.

You wrote "two weeks ago they were saying May due (to) the covid panic travel restrictions.."  Can you please inform the rest of us as to who "they" is?  Who from Aleafia Health said this and when?  Please provide a link to the press release or transcript from call.  I don't recall the company "saying EU GMP would happen in May.  Please educate us all.

As I wrote previously, Benic said in an update call in January that he expects that they MAY get EU-GMP in the next 4-6 weeks, but that is not written in stone, it was his expectation.  I capitalized the word "MAY", to highlight the differece between the word "will" and "may".  It was not to suggest that EU-GMP is coming in the month of May.

I don't expect much in the earnings announcement, and hopefully will be pleasantly surprised. 
.  
In the future, I think Benic needs to underpromise and overdeliver.  Share price will rise with positive earnings.  One would think that if free-cash-flow was so good, they would not have needed to do another bought deal, that throws in warrants and dilutes current share holders.

Cautiously optimistic.

GLTA Longs.

The Wiz