RE:RE:RE:Q4 Results Are Spectacular! The Future Looks Bright.1) It is $0.13 EPS per their financial statements. Not a big miss in the grand scheme of things.
2) The YE statements are audited by KPMG who have provided an unqualified opinion. There have been no restatements or revisions.
3) Not sure
4) Q1 2021 Revenues will be around $17M. Q1 2020 was unusually high because customers were pre-ordering (or stocking up) incase the supply chain became disrupted due to COVID which was just becoming a widespread problem. Backlog indicates orders received and scheduled to be fulfilled over the next 12mths. Q4 2020 had booked sales of $14.9M and the backlog increased by $3.2M so net orders or sales in Q4 was actually $18.1M.
remyken1509 wrote: Hi Rose
The problem prior to every release is that the market prices in the expected value and gets disappointed.
The truth is that these numbers are less impressive than they look.
1) There is big typo in the press release. Is it 0.13 or 0.14? EPS of 0.13 versus 0.14 makes a big difference. At EPS of 0.13 we miss the market's estimates. What's also hard to swallow is that this net earning target has probably been missed because Management increased their remuneration packages. Its great that we can increase revenues but what matters to shareholders is the bottom line.
2) Also if there's a typo there, who's to say that can we trust all the other numbers?
3) Photon's revenues performance has be to compared to its peers. 2020 was a record year for the whole industry. So is Photon's control performance better because they actually do better or just because people keep buying? They claim the industry grew on average at 18%. Sure, but average of what? How are Photon direct competitors doing?
4) The guidance for Q1 2021 is confusing. It's below last years performance while they also claim in the same press release that Backlog is at 30$ millions and that Q4 2020 was actually a great quarter for the industry as whole. So why the discrepency between $30 millions vs $17 millions guidance. Is the backlog actually the results of Distributors stocking up for the year (sales to distributors is good but doesn't mean clients are interested). Or is it because Photon has manufacutring issues? Its even more troublesome because there is a chip shortage and all chip manufacturers have announced huge investments in building production capabilities. $30 millions, yes sure sounds great but leaves many questions unanswered.
That's the thing with Photon Control, beneath each PR, there's a piece of bad news burried in that just kills the mood.
I'm still in, I still believe in the business model but I don't see us taking off the runway this quarter. Q1 2021 numbers are going to be critical. Average numbers again and the SP wil sink.
my 2 cents.