RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:OA & Back pain worth Harper75 wrote: My opinion might be more hope but in a perfect world, we are gifted with a buyout for the first three drugs somewhere in the range of 4-6 Billion. The further we progress each prior to buyout, the figure should increase as well.
And I think those are the kind of numbers we're working towards.
Right now, we know China is worth $100M plus royalties.
That makes USA worth $440M plus royalties.
That makes Europe worth $170M plus royalties.
That makes Japan worth $90M plus royalties.
Lucky for us, we struck a quick deal in China to cash up and buy time. We'll wait it out for higher values in the other regions.
The next two drugs have smaller values due to smaller market sizes and huge risk factors at this point in time. We need to get them into human testing. Risk should drop considerably for the next two drugs with a successful P3 for the first one.
Also keep in mind that the AH roll-in has very little value for the first three drugs as they stand now because ATE has the right to the first three drugs and the initial patents ... so ... as things stand ... the roll-in isn't important.
But ... show potential partners how new patents can be generated (like with the new IBD drug - waiting for that patent now - this is a key point to prove) and then you can convince potential partners that the sales profile looks much different after 2030/2032. Then we're talking about molecules that don't expire until 2040+. That's where the real money is for us.
So in this poker game, the real question becomes ... how long is ATE willing to wait before getting paid? If you trust in your first drug ... if you really believe it's going to change the world for the better, you ensure that first deal waits for payment (or partial payment) until after we have successful P3 results.
By then, you have 346 fully valued and we have new IP patented via the USPTO and you can assign much higher values to our drugs. You also have another 5+ new drug candidates in the stable by then and we can package up a much bigger deal should Big Pharma want us out of the picture.
Just thinking out loud.