RE:RE:Investment Case Thank you for correcting my spelling. As you you assume i am not english.
ex sedar technical report BC (13th may 2019)
@ about 2,4 g/t grade
not maybe;
OPEN PIT RESSOURCE (JORC): 457k oz indicate at 2,1g/t; 294k oz inferred at 2.7g/t
@ length:
mineralization lateral extend up to 2 km .Gold occurs as free particles up to several millimeters across within the ferruginous matrix of mineralized conglomerates and is closely associated with detrital pyrite and authigenic nodules (2–65 mm in diameter), which are locally referred to as “buckshot” pyrite. A number of gold-bearing conglomerates have been identified at several stratigraphic levels, from surface to approximately 70 m in depth within the Fortescue Group in the Nullagine sub-basin. Auriferous conglomerates at the Beatons Creek gold project occur in the mid-to-upper part of the Hardey Formation.
ex sedar interim financial statement 17.12.2020
On June 7, 2019, the Company entered into the Egina Farmin Agreement (“EFA”) to advance its Egina project (the “Project”) located near Port Hedland in WA. Under the EFA, Sumitomo Corporation and its wholly owned Australian subsidiary (together, “Sumitomo”)will contribute up to USD $29.66million funding to the Project over a 3-year earning period, subject to specific milestones and activity taking place.As at October 31, 2020, Sumitomo has funded AUD $7,256,000 ($6,800,000) to advancethe Project. At any time during the 3-year earning period and upon termination of the funding period, Sumitomo may elect to either:-acquire up to 40% participating interest in the Farmin Assets if Sumitomo makes an election toestablish a joint arrangement with the Company (the “Farmin Option”); or-exercise their Reimbursement Option, resulting in Novo reimbursing Sumitomo’s fundingcontribution in either cash (“Cash Payment Option”) or a variable number of shares (“SharePayment Option”).
@ sumitomo
Please explain your assumptions refering to sedar announcements. Can't get you.
Sumitomo is investing in farm in JV. they didn't sign the PP for the mill, they want more if the concept is proved and showing support with a MOU.
The mak samples are way better in 2020 than 2019. Within swale: 1.7 g/m3, Average: 0.83 g/m3. This is way enough for 1-2m depth grab samples of 1 ton.
my opinion:
@soft rock
Gold lies in mini-nuggets in the sediment and between brittle clusters directly near the in the sediment. Step by step, peeling off the gold bearing layer ... with the 'sieved' sediment you can directly backfill the pit. There is no need for a classic mine. you can use serveral sorting systems to advance dismantling.
Egina:
... of course you will be kept af egina at the there first dismantle the surface layer according to the capacity of the sorting systems then used ... huge bucket wheel excavators with conveyor bridges for daily tonnages such as coal or mineral silt mining will not be needed anyway. how deep you go then depends on the depth and the thickness of the gold-bearing sediment layer ... the overall gigantic area of novo makes it ...
Jorc will not work on the huge land position with this type of conglomerates. ... because drilling is pointless, millions of samples taken on the huge area as well ... so from plot to plot the gold-bearing layer thickness is measured, estimate gold content and and get started. The resulting physical ounces will convince the market
@ cash costs
@ provided they can make cash at BC
why not with open pit surfaced near at about 2 g/t?
70 m is nothing, it is comparable to an open-cast lignite mine in way of mining and transporting. Sampling has demonstrated that deposit is wide open to the west with spot sampling of these lodes returning grades of 2.1 g/t, 3.5 g/t and 2.7 g/t gold.
650 usd for BC would be good, it all depends on purity and size of the conglomerates. Egina and Karratha way easier to handle. You can see BC as test.
sorry for my weak spelling ;-)
Peter
Harmonicka wrote:
Opened today an account to discuss the business case in a serios serious- whithout without polemic - manner.
I bought a few days ago a core position at an average of 3 cad. Main Reason for timing was the approval of Nullagine Mine. This was the smartest thing Novo could do. BC ressources and mill should be compatible. The main problem of big dilution (Nvo has very few shares at this stage of the game) in the last years should be under control now. They will start mining with heap leach (partially) (down til 70m) and processing Beatons Creek at Nullagine. According Jorc Standard 1m ressouces at an average of about 2.4 g/t (mebe). Probable production of about 120.000 oz/pa the next few years. With the cash flow they can prove the business plan at eniga (Egina)and other tenements of about 14.000 sqm. .(provided they make money at BC)
Strategy of the last years:
They waited long time to go the way of a producer. countless mak/bulk samples (most of which were not divulged as the grades were nfg) and processing tests at IGR300. countless mechanical rock sorter tests and improvements with tomra (processing fines smaller than 0.8mm). Consolidation of a huge potential 'nuggets' piece of land. At Karratha +2mm almost fine gold nuggets. All in sediment. Looks like an automated sorting and processing without mill just with a small circulation circuit could be possible (good luck ). Dr Quinton Hennigh buying stakes (steaks) of the best gold explorer. Intensivation (?) of strategic cooperation with sumitomo (renewed MOU, JV of Eniga). Sumitono belongs to the biggest coorporation worldwide with specialist in all areas. (compare liabilty $$ re Soumitomo in financials for the last 2 qtrs. It dropped instead of increasing so no incremental participation). I think they walked.
Triggers:
PFS (P stands for post, not pre) probable til (at) end of March
cash cost of first quarter
commercial production (will be very bad as they didnt start processing Jan 01 and they started with low grade to prime and tweak, So Q1 will be a drain on cash. Watch Q2 closely.)
PFS:
deposit: beatons creek
Base: indicated ressources (it's a PFS)
Mining: open pit til 70 meters downside
grades: 2.1 g/t (mebe)
recovery: 90-95% (data of jorc study)
lenght (th): about 2 km (km2 that is not under 60 m of overburden????)
rock: sediment
All parameters let me expect of a really good PFS with cash costs of about 650 USD (mebe, mebe not though eh). Good grade (mebe) very close to surface (at the edge only), open pit (not all), probable low mining costs due softrock (hardest rocks on the planet) and low stripp (1P) off, low transporting costs due to near distance to mine , low processing costs due to good grade and recovery (lets see what the grade is. aisc depends on grade). In any case the conditions shoud be met to get the second tranche of credit facility (mebe).
Volume on 19.03.2021
Really looks like GDXJ rebalancing. At 18.03. GDXJ ETF was owner of about 7.5m shares. Somebody sold, but more interesting is who bought.
conclusion:
Novo can not be valued with a general approach (sure it can once we know the grade). The gold is lying probable on 14.000 qm (and most of that is under 1 km of overburden other than at the edge of the basin where it comes to surface). Decisive for the business case is the assumption of non expensive decentralised processing (depends on grade) and the capability for scaling up economically. Conventionally on ressource base Novo is valued expensive (yep, just ask Dart). JORC standard will not work (not for read between the liners). Cash costs could be less than 300 usd (good luck. First you said $650 and now youre at $300). Now it's time to prove the business plan.
If you believe Buy otherwise Sell. (What about fence sitters, dont forget about me and Fab eh)
Peter
Mickey the pole
Oslo
Harmonicka wrote:
Opened today an account to discuss the business case in a serios serious- whithout without polemic - manner.
I bought a few days ago a core position at an average of 3 cad. Main Reason for timing was the approval of Nullagine Mine. This was the smartest thing Novo could do. BC ressources and mill should be compatible. The main problem of big dilution (Nvo has very few shares at this stage of the game) in the last years should be under control now. They will start mining with heap leach (partially) (down til 70m) and processing Beatons Creek at Nullagine. According Jorc Standard 1m ressouces at an average of about 2.4 g/t (mebe). Probable production of about 120.000 oz/pa the next few years. With the cash flow they can prove the business plan at eniga (Egina)and other tenements of about 14.000 sqm. .(provided they make money at BC)
Strategy of the last years:
They waited long time to go the way of a producer. countless mak/bulk samples (most of which were not divulged as the grades were nfg) and processing tests at IGR300. countless mechanical rock sorter tests and improvements with tomra (processing fines smaller than 0.8mm). Consolidation of a huge potential 'nuggets' piece of land. At Karratha +2mm almost fine gold nuggets. All in sediment. Looks like an automated sorting and processing without mill just with a small circulation circuit could be possible (good luck ). Dr Quinton Hennigh buying stakes (steaks) of the best gold explorer. Intensivation (?) of strategic cooperation with sumitomo (renewed MOU, JV of Eniga). Sumitono belongs to the biggest coorporation worldwide with specialist in all areas. (compare liabilty $$ re Soumitomo in financials for the last 2 qtrs. It dropped instead of increasing so no incremental participation). I think they walked.
Triggers:
PFS (P stands for post, not pre) probable til (at) end of March
cash cost of first quarter
commercial production (will be very bad as they didnt start processing Jan 01 and they started with low grade to prime and tweak, So Q1 will be a drain on cash. Watch Q2 closely.)
PFS:
deposit: beatons creek
Base: indicated ressources (it's a PFS)
Mining: open pit til 70 meters downside
grades: 2.1 g/t (mebe)
recovery: 90-95% (data of jorc study)
lenght (th): about 2 km (km2 that is not under 60 m of overburden????)
rock: sediment
All parameters let me expect of a really good PFS with cash costs of about 650 USD (mebe, mebe not though eh). Good grade (mebe) very close to surface (at the edge only), open pit (not all), probable low mining costs due softrock (hardest rocks on the planet) and low stripp (1P) off, low transporting costs due to near distance to mine , low processing costs due to good grade and recovery (lets see what the grade is. aisc depends on grade). In any case the conditions shoud be met to get the second tranche of credit facility (mebe).
Volume on 19.03.2021
Really looks like GDXJ rebalancing. At 18.03. GDXJ ETF was owner of about 7.5m shares. Somebody sold, but more interesting is who bought.
conclusion:
Novo can not be valued with a general approach (sure it can once we know the grade). The gold is lying probable on 14.000 qm (and most of that is under 1 km of overburden other than at the edge of the basin where it comes to surface). Decisive for the business case is the assumption of non expensive decentralised processing (depends on grade) and the capability for scaling up economically. Conventionally on ressource base Novo is valued expensive (yep, just ask Dart). JORC standard will not work (not for read between the liners). Cash costs could be less than 300 usd (good luck. First you said $650 and now youre at $300). Now it's time to prove the business plan.
If you believe Buy otherwise Sell. (What about fence sitters, dont forget about me and Fab eh)
Peter
Mickey the pole
Oslo