Updated Numbers/ Math/ Share Pricing Using current numbers from investing.com's Carbonate pricing, of 87K CNY ($13,366 USD)... and a conversion rate of 1.3 USD to CAD as an average.
All estimates using 31K tonnes of hydroxide (PFS used 27K but converted to hydroxide is just over 31K, so being a tad conservative). Also using CAPEX of 495M which should get lowered a bit. Other changes listed in each scenario.
145M shares of CYP is being used as an estimate.
Base Case:
2.19 Billion USD (2.85 Billion CAD)
IRR of 78.5%
50% EV/NPV Share Price = $ 9.83 CAD
Share price equal to Piedmont's EV/NPV marketing rating (125%+ EV/NPV) = $24.56 CAD
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If hydroxide is being used, then (being conservative) giving just a premium on top of $1K per tonne, we have:
2.45 Billion USD (3.19 Billion CAD)
93.9% IRR
50% EV/NPV Share Price = $11 CAD
Share price equal to Piedmont's EV/NPV marketing rating (125%+ EV/NPV) = $27.50 CAD
Right now hydroxide is less than carbonate due to a variety of factors, but that is agreed upon to shift as hydroxide is used in high-nickel/longer range EVs.
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If the (hydrochloric acid/sodium chloride "table salt") pilot plant works out and OPEX can be lowered to... $2,600 instead of $3,300, using the same 1K premium per tonne of hydroxide of $14,366, we have::
2.65 Billion USD (3.45 Billion CAD)
107% IRR
50% EV/NPV Share Price = $11.90 CAD
Share price equal to Piedmont's EV/NPV marketing rating (125%+ EV/NPV) = $29.74 CAD
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Same as above, except LCE carbonate pricing rises to 14K, pushing hydroxide to $15K or over:
2.82 Billion USD (3.6 Billion CAD)
120% IRR
50% EV/NPV Share Price = $12.62 CAD
Share price equal to Piedmont's EV/NPV marketing rating (125%+ EV/NPV) = $31.03 CAD
You can multiply all these numbers by 3-4 to get a property wide estimate, as the PFS is only using about 25% of the property, due to the increase on resources from last summer and again now in March, 2021.
Any fair purchase would need to entail the entire property - or at minimum, 100% of NPV for existing project, based on new numbers, otherwise it would be a take-under, not a take-over.